Why US midterms matter to us
Gabrielle Armstrong-Scott argues a change in Washington DC will create more instability for New Zealand in the Indo-Pacific.
Like many Kiwis, I breathed a sigh of relief when Joe Biden won the US presidency two years ago. But very little has changed in America since the 2020 presidential election.
Drive an hour north from my home base and Democratic stronghold of Boston, Massachusetts, into New Hampshire, or across the country to Wyoming, Montana or Texas, and it’s a very different story. Billboards scream ‘‘Trump won in 2020’’ from the side of highways, and white nationalist flags fly from large Chevrolets.
The forces that fuelled the attempted coup at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, are alive and well, and look set to dominate in today’s midterm elections.
What’s happening inside America is itself reason for concern. But it’s also a gargantuan security threat for other nations, especially small ones like New Zealand. America’s growing authoritarianism, domestic turbulence and retreat from international leadership will create a more unstable environment for New Zealand in the Indo-Pacific.
Since 2021, Biden has made alliancebuilding a hallmark of US foreign policy, declaring that America is ‘‘back at the table’’ and committed to its allies and partners, including New Zealand. But it won’t be enough. If the Republicans take Congress, and if Trump wins the presidency in 2024, we are in for a very challenging decade in geopolitics.
Here are five reasons why:
■ First, the US will lose trust as security guarantor among small and island nations, straining New Zealand’s position in the Pacific. Trump’s negligence towards small nations will further entice these countries to rethink their allegiances and draw them into China’s orbit. (Many of these small nations will also recall being referred to as ‘‘shithole’’ countries by Trump.)
As a result, small and island nations like the Solomon Islands will drive bifurcation of the geopolitical arena and fuel China’s rise: giving China a voting majority at the UN, potentially serving as strategic military or intelligence bases, and supporting China’s economic growth through Belt and Road Initiative projects.
More onus will be on New Zealand and Australia to support the independence and economic development of these nations, rather than see these nations be drawn into greatpower competition or exploited for political gain.
■ Second, fear of another Republicancontrolled administration that shuns alliances is driving New Zealand’s regional partners to heavily invest in military development (and for some, investment in their nuclear arsenals), including France, the UK, Australia, Japan and South Korea.
While militarisation and selffortification can sometimes enhance security, the US-aligned arms buildup in New Zealand’s backyard is creating a precarious security dilemma among the world’s most powerful players. Security dilemmas tend to leave everyone worse-off, signalling aggression and reinforcing insecurities in the global political environment.
■ Third, the likelihood of New Zealand becoming embroiled in conflict in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea becomes much more likely under a hawkish Republican-controlled Congress or an unpredictable and disorganised leader like Trump.
Military miscalculation, a left-field announcement that the US will support Taiwan in seeking independence, or China exploiting a power vacuum left by an America distracted with domestic crises are just a selection of many potential triggers. If push comes to shove, New Zealand and its partners in the IndoPacific could be pressured to contribute to a US military response.
■ Fourth, the Republican Party’s contempt for multilateral institutions like the United Nations will erase a critical war-preventing apparatus. Another Republican administration will gut the funding, efficacy – and more importantly – confidence and legitimacy of these critical bodies, which have broadly protected us from major conflict for over 75 years.
The resulting degradation of cooperation on nuclear disarmament and collective action on climate change could pose an existential threat to New Zealand and the world.
■ Fifth, the Republican Party lacks incentives to regulate big tech, which played a major role in radicalising the terrorist responsible for the March 15 shooting in Christchurch.
With outsized Republican influence in Congress, profit-seeking US-domiciled technology corporations – often more powerful than nation states – will maintain free rein to erode democracy, deepen polarisation, stoke violence and deepen inequalities globally.
US big tech fuels coups and genocide, promotes violent extremist content that inspires terrorist attacks and propagates Covid-19 conspiracies. These issues will only worsen with greater Republican influence in American politics.
Trump is not the only problem. Antidemocratic views are endemic in the GOP. Other potential Republican contenders for president have shown similar tendencies – whether praising Putin, shunning allies or degrading critical international institutions.
The world’s greatest security threat today is the growing influence of the Republican Party’s authoritarianism in American domestic politics. New Zealanders should pay attention.