With US aid resumed, Ukraine will try to dig itself out of trouble
A long-awaited influx of US weapons will help Ukraine to blunt Russia’s advance in the coming months, Biden Administration officials said after Congress passed a major aid package, but an acute troop shortage and Moscow’s firepower advantage mean that Kyiv won’t likely regain major offensive momentum until 2025 at the earliest.
Lawmakers’ approval of the foreign aid bill following months of partisan gridlock was a victory for President Joe Biden. The sprawling legislation includes US$61 billion (NZ$102b) to fuel Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invading forces.
As initial shipments of arms, including artillery shells, air defence missiles and armoured vehicles, begin to reach Ukraine, US officials said they expected the new weapons to buy time for Kyiv to replenish its military ranks and strengthen battlefield defences – including trenches and minefields – ahead of an expected Russian offensive.
The foreign aid package’s approval, over objections from a cohort of House Republicans, was a desperately needed injection of hope for Ukraine, where exhausted combat units have been outgunned five to one as they have been forced to ration ammunition in the face of Russian glide bombs and increasingly bold aircraft assaults.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy characterised the long-delayed American aid as a lifeline, but stressed that the promised resupply must arrive quickly.
More than two years after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian forces have lost their early battlefield momentum, and many US officials believe Zelenskyy faces no clear military course to regaining the 20% of his country that Russia now occupies.
While Russia has lost more than 300,000 troops to injury or death, according to US estimates, it retains advantages in manpower and hardware, as Moscow continues to outproduce the West in artillery and other arms, and has turned to Iran and North Korea for help.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Ukraine would need time to “dig out of the hole” caused by Congress’s six-month delay.
Biden Administration officials cite what they believe Ukraine has done well despite the disappointment of its unsuccessful counteroffensive last year: defending vulnerable areas in Ukraine’s north and east, where Kyiv has permitted only limited Russian gains in the past year; keeping crucial commercial shipping lanes open in the Black Sea while putting Russia’s naval fleet on the defensive; and threatening the Kremlin’s stronghold in the occupied Crimea peninsula.
They frame 2024 as primarily a defensive year for Ukraine, but also cite the promise of new capabilities the West is supplying, including long-range ATACMS missiles provided by the US in recent weeks, that will allow Ukraine to strike more effectively into Crimea, an important Russian staging ground. Western nations are also expected to begin delivering a limited number of F-16 fighter jets later this year.
Although Russia has relied on poorly trained troops, it has in recent months ramped up weapons production and now significantly outguns Ukraine’s forces. Washington recently acknowledged that Russia’s forces are not as depleted as was once understood.
US officials also cite a need to build out Ukraine’s physical defences ahead of Russia’s expected offensive. Ukrainian forces have spent the last year digging trenches, putting in place barriers and laying mines, but US officials believe more must be done. They hope the anti-tank and anti-personnel mines included in the arms package announced in recent days will help. ■ Russia hammered Ukraine’s electrical grid at the weekend, in the latest assault on the country’s energy system.
Moscow’s forces fired 34 air-, land- and sea-based missiles at Ukrainian targets, the Ukrainian air force wrote on Telegram. Thirteen evaded air defences.
Russia has been able to significantly ramp up its missile and drone attacks across Ukraine – killing and wounding a large number of civilians, in addition to damaging infrastructure – as Ukrainian air defences run low on ammunition.
Missiles also struck the grounds near a medical complex and a psychiatric hospital in the eastern city of Kharkiv..
For its part, Ukraine’s military and security service, the SBU, carried out overnight drone attacks on a military airfield and two oil refineries in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region.