Oil: NZ’s worst-case scenario
A deep-sea oil spill could devastate some of New Zealand’s favourite beaches, with the effects stretching as far as the international dateline, new modelling from Greenpeace suggests.
Texan oil giant Anadarko begins exploratory drilling in the Taranaki and Canterbury Basins this summer. Greenpeace New Zealand asked scientists to make detailed estimates of how far an oil slick could stretch, based on wind, tide and sea currents.
The results, which have been greeted with cynicism by the Government and exploration industry, suggest a blowout off the North Island west coast might reach Northland and coat some of Auckland’s iconic west coast beaches.
A spill in the Canterbury Basin could reach Banks Peninsula and as far as the International Dateline, almost 3000km away.
A lack of New Zealand-based equipment means it could take about 76 days to stem the flow.
Dumpark ocean modeller Laurent Lebreton said his team predicted the trajectory of 1000 oil spill scenarios at the two sites.
‘‘In the North Island scenario, a deep-sea blowout will probably have dramatic consequences for the entire western coastline and harbours from Taranaki’s Cape Egmont to Opononi in Northland – including Auckland’s west coast beaches,’’ he said.
A catastrophic blowout could also spread across the Chatham Rise, a lucrative fishing ground, to the Chatham Islands, he said.
A slick emanating from the Taranaki Basin could devastate renowned surf breaks at Raglan and Piha, and recreational fishing and sailing grounds of Manukau Harbour, the study said.
Greenpeace campaigner Steve Abel said the Government understated the risks of deep-sea drilling. Exploration is the riskiest phase, the lobby group argues, as proved by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.
‘‘Drilling at these depths is much riskier than the shallow drilling we currently have in New Zealand,’’ he said.
University of Otago oceanographer Ross Vennell said the report’s scenarios were ‘‘conservative’’ and it took 152 days to drill a relief well in the Gulf. But Auckland Univer- sity head of department of engineering science Rosalind Archer questioned the estimated volume, as much as 40,000 barrels a day. ‘‘My assessment is that this report is likely to overstate the impact of a possible blowout in New Zealand waters.’’
University of Waikato’s Willem de Lang said the study used industry-standard modelling but was limited by a lack of New Zealand-specific data.
Energy Minister Simon Bridges said the offshore petroleum industry had operated with a strong safety record since the late 1960s, with more than 200 wells sunk.
‘‘The Government has taken a number of steps to strengthen regulatory processes and extend environmental protection measures to ensure they’re on a par with the highest international standards,’’ he said.
Petroleum Exploration & Production Association chief executive David Robinson said the report assumed a spill would take place, and that black oil would flow unchecked. ‘‘I think it is science fiction.’’