Power play in danger zone
The scene was like something out of the Cold War. A United States spy plane was on patrol over a disputed area when an abrasive voice, speaking in English, came over the radio warning the aircraft that it was an area claimed by China and peremptorily ordering it to leave. The US response was crisp – the aircraft was flying entirely in accordance with its rights under international law and it would continue to do so.
The American aircraft was more than 800km from mainland China, flying over a sprinkle of islands and other rocky outcrops known as the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The incident, and the fact that it was recorded by a crew from CNN who had been allowed to travel on the US plane, was the latest evidence of rising tension over China’s recently increased and more assertive activity in the region. The issue was at the top of the annual Shangri La conference of defence ministers, including Gerry Brownlee, held in Singapore last week.
The dispute over who has sovereignty over the Spratlys, the Paracels and other islands and reefs in the area is not new. China claims they have always been part of its territory and a documented assertion of its rights was made as long ago as 1947, before the communist revolution. The islands are, however, much closer to other nations and Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also claim sovereignty over some of them. In 1988, a skirmish between China and Vietnam over one of them resulted in the loss of several dozen Vietnamese lives.
Tension ratcheted up sharply a few months ago after it was noticed that China had greatly increased the installation of permanent runways and other structures on one area, the aptly named Mischief Reef, far from the mainland and only a few kilometres from the Philippines. The Philippines also claims the reef and calls the Chinese activity a ‘‘creeping invasion’’ but has forborne from any armed resistance to it. On one, the Fiery Cross Reef, China has begun a heavy land reclamation programme, presumably the better to patrol the outer limit of its claim.
The islands themselves are not particularly valuable. Most of them are home only to seabirds and marine animals. Several are not even always above the tide. The surrounding waters, however, are thought to be rich in oil, gas and other minerals. The islands also lie on some of the most important sea lanes and air routes in the Far East. The incident with the US spy plane was only the latest in which China has sought to assert rights over those using the area. As yet, no other nation recognises those rights and occasionally, as with the recent US spy flight, America deliberately defies China.
Coupled with a more expansionist defence strategy signalled by China, this all has a worrying potential to flare into something worse. America has responded recently by stepping up defence ties with Vietnam, Australia and others in the region in attempt to head it off. As everyone recognises, conflict would be in no one’s interest. Avoiding it, though, will require deft diplomacy.