Five political things that might just surprise you

This time last year we were gearing up for the mother of all election campaigns, a slalom ride through a minefield of leaked emails, dirty politics, spooks and rap stars. But if the theme for Campaign 2014 was ‘‘expect the unexpected’’, this year has so far been a long hard grind. It has thrown up some surprises, however.

Here are the top five things no one saw coming, in no particular order. Ponytail-gate: The prime minister, the waitress and the ponytail – the story about John Key’s ponytail-pulling antics grabbed headlines worldwide and left even those closest to him scratching their heads.

Amanda Bailey, a waitress at the Key family’s favourite Parnell eatery, claimed Key repeatedly pulled her ponytail. As with a school yard pest, asking him to stop only seemed to egg Key on. He didn’t deny it and publicly apologised.

Opinion was sharply divided over whether the story was worth all the hooha. Everyone seemed to agree it was a little bit weird, however. Ponytail jokes flourished.

But Key’s stocks barely fell in the polls. The 2014 campaign showed the more the public believe National’s opponents and the media are ganging up on Key, the more likely they will cut him some slack. Ponytail- gate proved the theory all over again. Surplus? What surplus?: Remember the rock star economy? The rivers of white gold? And National’s cockiness about being the better economic manager with the surplus to show for it?

Once the votes were in the promised surplus disappeared faster than a cheap do-up on the Auckland property market. And now the economy is centre stage again, but not in a good way as dairy prices go south, the Auckland housing market shoots north and business and consumer confidence start to wane.

Those factors could all take a toll on the Government’s assurances that the books will be firmly back in the black once the next election rolls around.

National is confident any economic downturn will count in its favour at the next election because voters won’t want to risk changing horses. But that could just be brave talk.

Political wisdom has it that governments are more likely to be turfed out on a deteriorating economy. And losing the surplus so soon after promising to deliver one won’t help. Kim Dot-Who? Another incredible vanishing act. Remember the German wrecking ball who cut a swathe through the political scene?

The internet entrepreneur became something of a cause celebre after he sparred with ACT leader John Banks, and shredded reputations at the Government Communications Security Bureau. But he overstretched himself by claiming he had evidence implicating John Key in a cover up – evidence which never eventuated.

Dotcom’s Internet Party – formed with the sole intention of bringing down the Key government – was an even bigger flop on election night after a public backlash.

The big German retreated to lick his wounds and has failed to reappear on the political scene since. Andrew Little: After a shambolic election campaign nobody except David Cunliffe expected Labour to stick with him as leader. But nor did anyone expect Andrew Little to be elected in his place.

Little’s credentials as a former party president and union boss were impeccable but he had kept a low profile in Parliament during his first three years and nearly didn’t make it back into the House at all.

Little’s first six months or so in the job have been solid if not spectacular and the traditional honeymoon period has barely registered. There have been some gaffes, meanwhile, including talking out both sides of his mouth on policy at times.

But Little has done enough to cement his position, dragging the party back from the disastrous 20s into more comfortable territory in the low to mid30s in recent polls. His most important achievement so far, however, is restoring a semblance of unity after inheriting a faction-riven caucus. The rise of Winston Peters: Yes you can re-heat a souffle. And in the case of the NZ First leader, more than once. Peters’ win in the Northland by-election severely dented National’s complacency and proved once again that he is one of our wiliest politicians.

The win wrong-footed National and also breathed new life into NZ First as the voice for New Zealand’s ‘forgotten regions’’. The minor party may still have a major succession headache once Peters eventually decides to retire, but for now NZ First is looking sharper than it has in years. And if one-time Labour loose cannon Shane Jones decides to return to politics under the NZ First banner as is widely rumoured, it will have the succession problem beat as well.