When no change means change may be in the air

The thing third term governments usually fear most is a mood for change. But that’s not what will be troubling John Key at the moment. He is facing possibly his first big defeat thanks to the absence of any mood for change in relation to the flag.

When Key announced a referendum on changing the flag he might have hoped it would stir up a bit of nationalist fervour. What he probably wasn’t banking on was for the debate to be so divisive.

He probably wasn’t expecting either that he would burn up so much political capital on the issue, even among his own supporters, many of whom are deeply opposed to replacing the current flag and question the Government’s priorities in putting it on its thirdterm agenda.

Apathy may be the only thing that saves the day for Key now, given the number of polls showing no appetite to replace the current flag.

So why has the flag debate bombed?

The referendum was sprung on voters in the absence of any real momentum for change. Key expected that his stocks would be high enough with voters that the idea of a new flag for a new millennium would take off once he gave it his personal imprimatur. But that hasn’t happened.

His other mistake was championing change so overtly and expressing his preference for the silver fern. That was always going to politicise the debate, particularly once the Flag Consideration Panel came up with a short list that seemed heavily weighted in favour of the prime minister’s preference.

Key’s third mistake was failing to recognise that as a third term prime minister he is a more polarising figure than seven years ago when National first took power.

Back then, even Key’s opponents grudgingly admired him and conceded he seemed a nice guy. They’ve had their noses rubbed in defeat by Key too often to feel the same way about him now.

In fact, the Left’s dislike of Key is as visceral now as the dislike for Helen Clark during her third term.

So Key is having to wage battle on not one, but two, fronts to keep his dream of a flag change alive – with his political opponents, and those who don’t want a change.

Apathy may be the third front in that battle but it is hard to know which side of the argument it might favour. That will depend on which group is most motivated to send in their vote.

Whatever the result, it is unlikely to have a huge effect on the Key Government’s popularity – that will be decided by other concerns, like the state of the economy, or health and education services.

But if Key loses, it will galvanise his opponents who will see it as a rare political victory and a big chink in Key’s armour. And it may have a personal toll as well on a prime minister who is not used to defeat.