Is there a plan B for the TPP?
OPINION: It is hugely symbolic that on the day Donald Trump killed the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, Prime Minister John Key was poised to set foot on the first US warship to visit New Zealand in decades.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership was the life-line thrown to New Zealand when it seemed like all hope of a one-on-one trade deal with the United States was gone.
Before the TPP, we were teased, rebuffed and rejected over our approaches to the US for a bilateral trade deal until it finally became clear we just weren’t important enough for them to care.
It wasn’t just our nuclear-free status that stood between us and a trade deal, though it didn’t help. Our economy is too small and we never had much to offer in return, other than a chance for the US to walk the talk on free trade.
America saw no upside in offering us the holy grail of a free trade agreement with the world’s biggest economy when other countries of greater economic, strategic and diplomatic importance were lining up for the same thing.
If anything there are mainly downsides for US lawmakers in a free trade deal with New Zealand a fight with America’s heavily protected and subsidised agriculture lobby for starters.
New Zealand’s lack of strategic importance to the US was also behind it leaving relations with New Zealand frozen in their state of post-Anzus inertia for so many decades.
So a note of caution to anyone who thinks that Trump’s rejection of the TPP can be sweetened with a bilateral trade deal instead. New Zealand went down that path for years and met with only heartbreak and rejection after wasting money and effort wooing US politicians and highly paid lobbyists.
The TPP was, and still is, the best hope for our exporters of a level playing field in the US because of the presence of economies like Japan that gave it the critical weight required to get a deal over the line.
With Trump even lining up the Doha trade talks for a bullet, the case for the TPP becomes even more pressing.
During Apec last week, Prime Minister John Key talked up the prospect of a deal limping on without the US but no-one else is talking about that as a serious possibility. Without the might of the US economy behind it, the TPP will fall into the too hard basket for other countries like Japan. We will have to join the queue of countries seeking a bilateral deal with the US instead, and we won’t be at the front of the queue.
The presence of a US warship in New Zealand this week is, however, a sign that some things have changed. The US pivot to Asia, and with that its awakening to New Zealand’s role in the Pacific and wider Asia Pacific region, was what led to the gradual breaking down of barriers erected in the wake of the anti-nuclear legislation.
So too New Zealand’s presence in Afghanistan and Iraq - we may not be allies, but we can still be counted on.
But on trade the US is predictable if nothing else; it will act in its own self interest, not ours. Trump’s presidency doesn’t change that - he is just more blatant than his predecessors.
There are mainly downsides for US lawmakers in a free trade deal with New Zealand.
"My agenda will be based on a simple core principle: putting America first." Donald Trump
UNITED STATES: President-elect Donald Trump met with Cabinet hopefuls at his Manhattan office tower yesterday and later outlined plans for his first day in office, including withdrawing from a major trade accord and investigating abuses of work visa programs.
Trump met with Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin, Democratic US Representative Tulsi Gabbard and former Texas Governor Rick Perry. But he announced no further appointments, keeping candidates and the public guessing about the shape of the administration that will take office on January 20.
Fallin, Gabbard and Perry were the latest of dozens of officials who have made their way across the opulent lobby of Trump Tower for talks with the Republican president-elect in a relatively open - and unconventional - transition process since his election victory on November 8.
Trump, who has not held a news conference since his election, issued a video yesterday outlining some of his plans for his first day in office, including formally declaring his intent to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, trade deal, which he called ‘‘a potential disaster for our country.’’
The 12-nation TPP is Democratic President Barack Obama’s signature trade initiative and was signed by the United States earlier this year but has not been ratified by the U.S. Senate.
The president-elect said he would replace the accord with bilaterally negotiated trade deals that would ‘‘bring jobs and industry back onto American shores.’’
‘‘My agenda will be based on a simple core principle: putting America first. Whether it’s producing steel, building cars or curing disease, I want the next generation of production and innovation to happen right here on our great homeland, America, creating wealth and jobs for American workers,’’ he said.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said yesterday the TPP ‘‘would be meaningless without the United States.’’
Trump said he would cancel some restrictions on producing energy in the United States on his first day in office, particularly shale oil and ‘‘clean coal,’’ which he said would create ‘‘many millions of high-paying jobs.’’
He promised to direct the Labor Department to investigate abuses of visa programs for immigrant workers. The main U.S. visa program for technology workers could face tough scrutiny under Trump and his proposed attorney general, U.S. Senator Jeff Sessions, a longtime critic of the program.
Trump had made eliminating regulations and withdrawing from the TPP central to his campaign, but he sent mixed signals during the campaign about his views on visa programs including the main H-1B visa for high-tech industry workers.
Trump has so far picked two Cabinet members and three top White House advisers, but aides said he was not expected to make further announcements yesterday.
‘‘They could come this week, they could come today, but we’re not in a rush to publish names,’’ Kellyanne Conway, a senior adviser, told reporters. ‘‘We’ve got to get it right.’’
Trump held an off-the-record meeting with a group of television anchors and executives yesterday and was scheduled to meet with print media representatives today. - Reuters