Time will tell if we can re-Joyce

OPINION: After a decade of political certainty, regime change has suddenly been thrust on us.

But will Bill English’s swearing in as prime minister usher in a new era, or more of the same?

English has already signalled it is steady as she goes by naming Steven Joyce as his new finance minister. English and Joyce have worked together long enough that they almost know what the other is thinking before he says it.

And, as National’s campaign strategist and John Key’s economic development minister, Joyce - like English - shares ownership of every major decision over the past 10 years.

But neither of them has ownership of Key’s pledge that no National government would tinker with pensions as long as he was prime minister.

Key delivered the pledge while on the campaign trail in 2008 to get the pension monkey off his back.

Broken promises by successive National leaders had become an electoral liability - Jim Bolger went back on a promise to scrap the pension surcharge and Jenny Shipley slashed pension rates. Unsurprisingly, the grey vote deserted National for NZ First’s Winston Peters.

But the pledge was a uniquely personal one, and tied solely to Key’s leadership.

So expect one of the first questions lobbed at English and Joyce next week to be whether they will recommit to Key’s pledge.

Key’s refusal to tinker with pensions was one of the few decisions made by his leader that clearly sat uncomfortably with English.

As a former Treasury boffin, he won’t be immune to the doomsday warnings over the unsustainability of the current pension settings sounded by everyone from Treasury down.

So English and Joyce will likely kick it for touch rather than be backed into reaffirming Key’s pledge immediately.

They will probably want to wait until the New Year when they have had a chance to head check policies that have been around for a while.

But even refusing to give an immediate guarantee on pensions would be a huge political gamble.

It opens a window for Peters to climb through.

But on overall direction, don’t expect any sudden lurches under English and Joyce.

Investment, infrastructure and paying down debt will be the mantra of an English-Joyce government, much like it has been under the Key-English government.

They are also likely in agreement on tax cuts, despite their surprise emergence during the leadership race as a potential area of disagreement with caucus.

There is also a strong personal rapport between the two of them, as there was between English and Key.

But it will take time to see whether the English-Joyce marriage can match the KeyEnglish bromance.