Election should come early
Does a new face call for a new mandate? As of today, New Zealand has a new prime minister in Bill English, as well as a new deputy, Paula Bennett, and a reshuffled Cabinet. English’s long, slow journey to the top started 15 years ago, when he replaced Jenny Shipley. But after he led National to its worst election defeat in 2002, he was dropped for Don Brash, who quickly pushed up the party’s numbers. English adjusted to life as a highly capable deputy prime minister and finance minister.
History shows that the public never asked for nor wanted English as their prime minister but, then, they never chose Shipley either. A UMR survey conducted in September and October found that English would be preferred National Party leader in the event of John Key’s departure, but he amassed only 21 per cent support. Steven Joyce was close, at 16 per cent, but he and others – Paula Bennett at 11 per cent and Judith Collins at 6 per cent – were massively overshadowed by the 45 per cent who remained unsure.
That points to the overpowering effect of the Key brand on the electorate, despite some signs that his personal ratings were starting to slip. Is a National government without Key as frontman the same government? While English set many of the policy directions, Key was the unusually popular face.
Politics watchers expect a fresh election in September 2017. But there are increasing reasons for English to call an early election. Testing his leadership is just one of them. Labour MP David Shearer is resigning to take up a role with the United Nations in South Sudan in the new year, which would trigger a by-election in Mt Albert.
Under normal circumstances, the by-election could happen in the early months of 2017. But these are not normal circumstances. There was a by-election in the neighbouring electorate of Mt Roskill this month. Byelections are expensive, with the $947,000 cost of the Northland by-election in 2015 being typical. An early election would avoid the expense of a new contest in Mt Albert.
Electoral law says an election must come within six months of Shearer’s resignation. It could happen in winter, allowing English to present a Budget as prime minister.
It is no surprise that the opposition is keen on an early election. Labour and the Green Party are unusually prepared and they want to catch English while he is relatively new, without the distorting influence of Key’s popularity. Their Memorandum of ynderstanding shows they started thinking about 2017 as early as May 2016.
Key’s handover to English was also pre-election positioning and we seem to be on the verge of a campaign already.
Shearer and Key are just two of the high-profile departures. Other ministers and MPs who will empty desks and pack boxes in 2017 include David Cunliffe, Maurice Williamson, Hekia Parata, Jono Naylor, Chester Borrows and Clayton Cosgrove. As list MPs, Parata, Naylor and Cosgrove do not trigger byelections.
These announcements show that both the Government and the opposition already have the finish line in sight and are thinking about renewal and rejuvenation. It makes an early election seem like the sensible option.