Online readers’ verdict on politicians
John Key has been something of a phenomenon in New Zealand politics. The first selfie prime minister, the first of our political leaders to pick up social media and run with it. He planked, he twerked, he knows what the Fox says.
But selfies were relatively unknown when Key became prime minister – the first official selfie hashtag made its appearance on Instagram in 2011, three years after he was first elected to power.
Key’s leadership even predated iPhones. He was well ensconced as National leader when the first one rolled off the production line in 2007. But Key made up for lost time, rapidly becoming a social media rockstar. A story about Key or his family generated tens of thousands of hits and hundreds of reader comments. Often the reader comments were in marked contrast to the polls, which have had National at an almost constant high.
National’s polls have in fact been so consistent, they have almost flatlined in the mid to high 40s.
An analysis of four years worth of stuff.co.nz reader comments, however, suggests that reader sentiment has swung far more wildly than the polls.
Using a tool called Opinio we have been able to track sentiment over a period from January 2013 to now, based on the attitudes expressed by people commenting on stuff.co.nz articles.
A score of 1 is least favourable, a score of 5 is most favourable. The average sentiment score across all subjects using Opinio is 2.2. The tracking data shows that sentiment towards Key was least favourable in March 2013, and most favourable in February 2014.
When Key delivered his bombshell news about retirement last week, he said he wanted to go out on a high, rather than wait for voters to kick him out. But Opinion reveals that far from sentiment turning against Key over the past 12 months, it has been steadily tracking up, based on these stuff.co.nz reader comments.
There was an obvious tick up in sentiment following his decision to retire, probably a reflection that even his most trenchant online critics would have applauded his decision to go.
His successor, Bill English, has a steadier sentiment profile – but, like Key, sentiment turned against him in early 2013, before recovering in 2014.
There is, however, also good news for Labour leader Andrew Little, regardless of what the polls say. Stuff.co.nz readers seem to be better disposed to him than English, with Opinio consistently scoring him higher than English in terms of sentiment recorded through the reader comments.
Paula Bennett, due to be elected deputy prime minister today, is the most polarising of all of them, however, with her Opinio scores fluctuating wildly. She rates higher than all of them, including Key, in September 2013, before a roller-coaster ride of ups and downs. Unlike English, she doesn’t appear to have benefited from a tick up in sentiment after she entered the deputy leadership race.
Sentiment for NZ First’s Winston Peters was similarly volatile. Peters was the most polarising of all the MPs we surveyed, his favourable sentiment hitting a high point in March 2014, and a low point in October 2013. But there are fewer wild swings in 2016, with his favourability ratings consistently above the average.