Minority ‘drain on resources’

New research that found fewer than a quarter of New Zealanders account for more than 80 per cent of social costs, such as crime and welfare payments, will be a ‘‘huge boost’’ to tackling problems, its lead researcher says.

The latest findings of the Dunedin Study, released publicly on today, have been delivered to Government ministers, including new Prime Minister Bill English, a long-time champion of data-driven reform of social services.

The study follows 1000 people born in the southern city in 1972-73, examining all parts of their lives. Its new research found 22 per cent of study members accounted for nearly 80 per cent of the group’s economic burden, including 81 per cent of criminal convictions, 66 per cent of welfare benefits and 78 per cent of drug prescription fills.

It also found neurological tests completed when participants were three years old could predict who would become a ‘‘high-cost’’ adult.

‘‘The really startling aspect of these findings is not that you can show an association between early childhood and later outcomes, but that it’s as strong as it is,’’ study director Professor Richie Poulton said.

‘‘When you look at just 20 per cent of the population, that tells you something very significant – that the return on that investment will be great.’’

The Government has been pushing for better use of data and software tools to streamline public spending. Social services have been a priority, and the Government is considering risk modelling to identify vulnerable children as early as possible.

Poulton, who is the Ministry of Social Development’s chief science adviser, said the study would marry well with those goals.

‘‘We’ve basically provided an empirical test of that model and said ‘Is there a small section of the population . . . that accounts for the lion’s share of all the services that government provides?’ The answer is yes. I imagine that this Government and the architect of this socialinvestment model, who has just become the prime minister, will be thrilled.’’

Poulton emphasised the study, completed in conjunction with Duke University in the United States and King’s College London, would need to be replicated elsewhere. New Zealand was one of the few places with access to national databases to complement longitudinal studies, he said, hence the overseas interest.

Other academics noted the Dunedin Study drew on a localised sample group now aged in their 40s, and could not account for some contemporary factors.

‘‘We need to understand how ethnicity and parents’ migration status impact on life-course trajectories, as well as how they cluster with other risks,’’ Professor Cameron Grant of the University of Auckland’s centre for longitudinal studies said.

‘‘It’s a small group of people, but they make an enormous mess for themselves and for others.’’ Professor Richie Poulton

Dunedin North Intermediate principal Heidi Hayward, who last week penned a letter to ministers bemoaning the ‘‘hopelessness’’ of trying to teach disadvantaged children with minimal extra funding, said the study put the problem in stark, manageable terms.

‘‘This is not widespread. It’s a small group of people, but they make an enormous mess for themselves and for others. If we funded the 20 per cent in the short term, then they might actually manage functioning, contributing lives as adults.’’

Governments had been reactionary for too long, she said.

‘‘Instead of spending [money] for 10 or 15 years to ensure that they get through childhood and can manage as an adult and contribute to society, we do the reverse [and] we end up funding them for 50 or 60 years. And we don’t get anything out of them as people.’’

The study is published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour.