A mug’s game – second-guessing Winston
So Monday it is. D Day. Winston Peters and NZ First will get down to business to decide which of the two deals on the table to accept and the dream will finally be over for Bill English or Jacinda Ardern.
The Labour and National leaders have been like two Lotto players clutching the winning ticket between them. On Monday one of them will finally have to let go.
If the toss goes against Labour, it could add up to 12 long years in Opposition. That’s almost a record.
And if National loses? Bill English and Steven Joyce will go to make way for the next generation. But there will be nothing seamless about the handover. There will be blood on the floor.
So the stakes are high for both camps.
Which way will Peters go? It’s a mug’s game to second guess him. Is it Ardern, whose first-term government may have more gas in the tank than a fourth term National government? Or does he stick with the status quo – National – which history suggests could be a determining factor, since Peters has never done a deal to change the government?
Those of us watching the daily parade from Bowen House to the Beehive and back have exhausted ourselves to a standstill on this question over the past three weeks.
There is an argument that it will depend on who wants it most, Ardern or English. But both of them want it badly so it’s unlikely either side has held anything back.
So Peters may have to feel his way based on other factors. Under MMP, minor parties have to weigh up the wins against the collateral damage of any deal. Labour killed off the Alliance, while National consumed ACT, proved toxic for the Ma¯ ori Party and has had more than one crack at finishing off NZ First.
Based on that record, you’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
So what else? Peters is steeped in the National Party and is a more natural fit with National than Labour. But probably half his caucus lean toward Labour. Personal relationships? The generation of National MPs who used to have relationships with Peters are long gone so the ledger is in Labour’s balance now.
Trust? Peters was burned by his 1996 deal with National and again by John Key in 2008.
So the last five days of intense negotiations have been about testing the compatibility of NZ First and its potential partners – compatibility of policy, of vision, of direction, and of where they each want to take New Zealand.
But mostly, of course, it’s been about horse trading. Policy concessions to keep NZ First voters happy. A happy supporter is a return voter.
And portfolios? Peters has been at pains to insist there have been no discussions as yet about ministerial warrants and that is probably true. He has learnt from bitter experience that voters are unimpressed by ministerial portfolios and it won’t win him any extra votes.
But it can be assumed that the allocation of certain portfolios is implicit in some of the policy concessions on the table.
Ministerial titles and the profile that go with them are how Peters keeps his MPs happy – and in line.
So whichever party is prepared to go further on policy concessions and portfolios will have the inside running but the quirk that enables parallel negotiations under MMP means Peters can use one side as leverage off the other.
Peters now has the weekend to think things over at his Northland bolthole, probably with just a few of his closest confidantes at his side.
Using the delay calling his board together was probably just a way for Peters to give himself breathing space.
Parliament will be a hive of parallel meetings on Monday as phone calls and documents fly between NZ First and the negotiating teams in Labour and National before a final decision is made but we may not know till Tuesday what the outcome is.
So will stability be the deciding factor for Peters? Three is always a crowd in coalitions so the advantage is with National.
But stability is not within the power of either leader to promise. The 1996 coalition was a two-way deal and National had a substantial majority with NZ First. The government fell apart regardless.
There is one factor beyond Ardern’s ability to control in any deal she offers Peters, however, and that’s the Greens’ unconditional support.
Even Green Party co-leader James Shaw can’t guarantee that. Shaw will be only one half of the Green Party leadership, and the We have had a week now of what they are calling ‘‘Winbo’’ — the Winston Peters-induced limbo. Of course we will only know who is ultimately the winner and loser in terms of leading the country once the final decision is made. But in the meantime here is our take on who is up and who’s down at the end of the talks.
Quote of the Week:
‘‘No. There will be clarification, but contrary to whatever is said, we are not running a Dutch auction here.’’
says he will not be going back to Labour and National for further concessions.
Peters UP:
The NZ First board. Let’s for a second accept Winston Peters’ assurance that they will not just rubber stamp his option but make their own call. In that case a group of 13 mostly obscure citizens have the power to decide whether Labour or National forms the next government.
DOWN: Bill English.
When was the last time a prime minister was so invisible, and in a week when there have been intense negotiations about the shape of a government he hopes to lead. He has virtually gagged himself by being off-limits to the public and the media and has looked weak and in thrall to Peters as a result.
She at least has fronted the media and even answered an occasional question, but has suffered from the same problem as English – appearing to be evasive and hostage to the cone of silence Peters has imposed on the talks.
Jacinda Ardern.
election for a new co-leader could yet turn into a referendum on his handling of whatever deal he negotiates with Labour.
There are already deep divisions within the Green Party over how the Metiria Turei controversy played out. Any deal that treats the Greens like the
The Greens.
Of all the leaders James Shaw has remained relatively open about the process being undertaken, even though he has not been in The Room. But to a large extent the Greens will be buying a pig in a poke if they agree to the coalition option negotiated by Labour because they will have no idea what NZ First has won in its separate negotiations with Labour.
He guaranteed he would make a decision public by October 12, then said it would be made but not made public and then broke his own deadline. On top of that he ran a spurious argument about his board needing to be private and the difficulty of getting them all in one place.
Peters. Talking of ups and downs ...
With roughly 10 minutes of action every two and a half hours – when the leaders headed to or returned from coalition talks – the precinct’s farcical ‘‘transport infrastructure’’ elements have at times preoccupied the waiting media. Why for instance, did the security guards last Sunday start blocking press gallery accredited media from seeing or recording the leaders, when on any normal day around Parliament they mingle freely? Or why, given the heavy use of the route between the high-rise Bowen House and the Beehive, was the up escalator out of action for the whole week? Was it not possible to change the direction of the fully-functioning down escalator into an up escalator so that Peters and his team wouldn’t have to use the world’s slowest lift? Were they indeed Escalators of National Importance (EONS)?
junior partner to NZ First – especially if it forces them to swallow too many dead rats on NZ First policy – will drive a further wedge. Peters knows that and is already deeply distrustful of the Greens anyway.
So National it is then. Maybe. Or maybe not.