Bioweapons and the border
A rogue form of artificial intelligence creates a bioweapon and uses it to escape from human control.
It sounds like science fiction, but New Zealand researchers have presented the scenario as a forward-looking risk to illustrate new research about closing the country’s border.
The study, published in the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, is a costbenefit analysis of closing the border in the event of a severe global pandemic. Taking the preemptive step could save tens of thousands of lives and huge health costs, and new legislation is needed for the Prime Minister and Cabinet to be able to make the call within a day, the researchers say.
Nick Wilson, senior author and a professor of public health at the University of Otago in Wellington, said being an island nation had its drawbacks, but it would be a survival advantage in the event of a global pandemic.
‘‘New Zealand is one of the few countries that could do things like border closures,’’ he said.
Data from past influenza pandemics was used to calculate hospitalisations and deaths for two scenarios, one in which
12,973 people died if a disease breached the border and another more cataclysmic scenario where
129,730 died.
The estimated net benefit of successfully closing the border against the first scenario was
$7.86 billion, climbing to a massive $144b for the second. This was based on a 180-day border closure, and excluded impacts on trade.
Dr Matt Boyd, lead author of the study, said increasing risks of new pandemics due to the growing density of human populations, among other factors, meant there was a need to look at different scenarios.
The study suggested the risk to human civilisation from infectious agents had never been greater. The researchers found closing the border could make sense for New Zealand in some extreme pandemic situations, and that doing so, they said, would far outweigh disruptions to the economy and tourism.
The plan includes a number of border control measures, including limiting or restricting aircraft from areas of concern, screening passengers, and placing people in quarantine.