Brutal challenges to end ‘magical thinking’

Stop the ‘‘magical thinking’’ and start the proper discussion on how New Zealanders can manage climate-change threats.

That was Canterbury University political scientist Associate Professor Bronwyn Hayward’s message to a gathering of scientists in Christchurch yesterday.

Speaking at the joint Meteorological Society and Hydrological Society conference, Hayward said pursuing economic growth while trying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and adapt to climate change, would continue to be a major source of friction, particularly among those with their heads in the clouds.

She hoped the COP24 meeting in Poland might provide ‘‘an end to magical thinking’’ when it came to keeping temperature rise to the agreed 1.5 degree Celsius level.

‘‘But having heard the new secretary-general of the United Nations say at the opening of COP that nothing in these reports, of maintaining it at 1.5C, will affect economic growth, I think we are still living in magical thinking. ‘‘Either we accept this is the future we have embarked on for our kids, now, or we accept an amazingly, unprecedented drop is necessary. So far the national pledges don’t get us anywhere near the 1.5C. At present it is more like 3.6C or 3.9C. So if we are going to avoid overshoot, then we are actually going to have to start cutting emissions.’’

It was a shame to realise New Zealand was part of the magical thinking, she said.

Two communities highlighted some of the real problems facing Kiwis, Hayward said.

Kaeo, in the far north of New Zealand, which is prone to floods, and coastal Christchurch, where sea-level rise forecasting has created rebuilding issues.

Allowing new homes at Southshore – ‘‘our most exposed coast’’ – sent an incredible moralhazard message.

‘‘If you want to be really fair, buy them out. But at $790 million to actually buy out the whole of Southshore . . . at some point we are going to have to start making really hard decisions about how we manage these communities that are significantly affected.’’

Scientists were being hamstrung from helping people speak out about making changes, Hayward said. The 2015 Paris agreement had encouraged citizens to voice concerns.