Forecast frustrations: Extreme new normal
Forecasters face a frustrating challenge as extreme weather becomes seemingly more frequent – how can they keep the public interested in the weather?
During settled weather, most people take only fleeting notice of the forecasts. But when stormy conditions are on the way, it is vital members of the public listen to weather warnings and act to protect life and livelihood if necessary.
At the joint Meteorological Society-Hydrological Society conference in Christchurch, MetService communications meteorologist Lisa Murray explained the difficulties of getting the public to engage with forecasts.
Perceptions of weather forecast accuracy could affect how much attention people paid to future warnings of heavy rain, snow or gales, regardless of the forecasts’ actual, verified, accuracy.
If a storm affected one part of the country more than the neighbouring region, it might be difficult to convince residents the next low-pressure system would hit them instead.
They might also be less inclined to listen if there had already been a run of bad weather.
‘‘People who weren’t affected by the last event might just think, ‘here we go again’.
‘‘But those people who were affected would be super-sensitive to any more weather,’’ Murray said.
That was especially concerning in a summer which might have several tropical cyclones bearing down on New Zealand, she said.
‘‘So what is it that we can do that would improve communication? Sometimes we need to take control of the story – this is our area of expertise.’’
Working with the media to send out accurate and punctual messages was the best way to capture public interest.
The use of engaging graphics and different ways of telling the forecast on social media was another, Murray said.
University of Haifa academic and former National Institute of Weather and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) climatologist, Dr Jim Salinger, referred to his previous employer when he asked whose forecasts the public should follow.
‘‘I’m very disappointed to see the evolution of two [taxpayer] bodies who issue forecasts. What should the public do?’’
Murray said MetService was the official provider of severe weather watches and warnings.