Farming up to gas challenge
In October, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its special report on the actions needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This, it said, would require ‘‘transformative systemic change’’ involving ‘‘far-reaching, multilevel and cross-sectorial mitigation’’.
The report says limiting warming to 1.5C implies reaching net zero CO2 emissions globally by around 2050 and ‘‘deep reductions’’ in shortlived gases such as methane. It recognises that, as a long-lived gas, CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, whereas methane from agriculture (while a strong greenhouse gas) is recycled through the system.
Are farmers up to the challenge? I think so, and this is why.
While some have advocated for net zero emissions across all gases, the IPCC report says the most ‘‘transformative’’ scenario is about a 35 per cent cut in methane emissions by 2050. Given some caveats, this is achievable.
We should accept (and the report acknowledges) that changes to farming and forestry systems could affect current ecosystems and their services (the positive things they do for the environment) and ‘‘potentially threaten food, water and livelihood security’’. It is a little repeated fact that the Paris Climate Change Agreement, while calling for mitigation and adaptation, recognised the importance of food security and requires that mitigation should not threaten production. So, rather than one goal, we have two, potentially competing, goals to consider: maintain, and even increase, food production, while mitigating emissions.
Helpfully, the report also says that ‘‘improving the efficiency of food production and closing yield gaps have the potential to reduce emissions from agriculture . . . and enhance food security’’, while reducing demand (eg, for meat) will be difficult.
New Zealand farmers are ahead of the game, producing almost twice the milk and meat per kilogram of CO2 than the world average, but we look bad with almost 50 per cent of our emissions from agriculture, and a small population. If you measured greenhouse gas emissions against a country’s food production, rather than population, we would be one of the good guys.
That brings me to the first caveat in reaching a 35 per cent reduction in methane emissions. The target is a global one, and New Zealand farmers should be recognised for their contribution on a global scale. The New Zealand