Shortage of new GPs looming
New Zealand could be headed for a shortage of GPs as a wave of retirements approach.
That’s one finding from a study that compared plans of graduating medical students with what the Kiwi medical workforce needs.
A GP leader foresees a crisis if not enough new GPs come through; some clinics are already struggling to recruit; and bids for a third medical school have been shelved.
The biggest potential mismatch between need and new doctors’ plans is in general practice, the study published in the New Zealand Medical Journal says.
‘‘There appears to be ‘over interest’ in certain specialties, eg, surgical specialties,’’ the authors wrote.
‘‘Conversely, there is potential ‘under interest’ for specialties such as general practice and psychiatry.’’
However, the Ministry of Health forecasts that GP numbers ‘‘will increase and keep pace with population growth over the next 10 years’’.
Half the current crop plan to retire within the next decade, Royal New Zealand College of GPs medical director Bryan Betty said.
‘‘If there’s not workforce coming through to replace them, we have serious problems.’’
GPs were taking on more of what was previously done in hospital, Betty said, and medical students needed more time outside hospitals.
According to the recent study, about 38 per cent of each year’s new doctors must become family doctors in order to keep numbers stable through to 2028.
In reality, about 21 per cent of graduates plan to specialise in the area – though migrant doctors could bolster numbers.
Surgical specialties have the opposite situation: More students are interested than are needed.
The findings were from a survey answered by almost 1600 graduating doctors, about half of whom had decided on a specialty – so some caution was needed with the results, the authors wrote.
‘‘With the workforce shortages that we have got . . . we pretty much need to do absolutely everything that we can to address them,’’ University of Waikato vice-chancellor Neil Quigley said.
The University of Waikato – and the local district health board – was behind a now-shelved bid for a graduate-entry medical school with a focus on directing people to general practice and rural areas.
‘‘The people who make a positive choice to be general practitioners are choosing a specialty where they’re probably going to earn less than in another specialty ... because they really believe that’s the sort of work that they want to do,’’ Quigley said.
Half of the medical graduates had not settled on a specialty, the study’s authors said, so there was a chance to shape their career during the early postgraduate years.
‘‘This opportunity could be used to influence doctors to select specialties that are needed to match the future health needs of New Zealand.’’
The Ministry of Health acknowledged the pressures on the workforce and said a bonding scheme encouraged people into high-need areas. Other solutions included rural training hubs and workforce development funded in the Government’s 2019 Wellbeing Budget.
‘‘There appears to be ‘over interest’ in certain specialties, eg, surgical specialties.’’
Study authors