Record-breaking heat in November

New Zealand had a warmer than normal November, and it’s all thanks to Australia.

The average temperature for the month was 15.3 degrees Celsius – 1.55C above Niwa’s

30-year data, which exceeded the

1954 and 2013 November records of 1.38C above average.

An increase in northwesterly winds and a decrease in southerlies were to blame, says Niwa climate scientist Gregor Macara.

‘‘There’s really warm air masses arriving to New Zealand from Australia . . . [it’s] happening more frequently.’’

The mean maximum temperature in Hawke’s Bay was 26.2C, up from its 25.6C average the year prior, and Kawerau had three days of incredible, recordbreaking heat – 34.6C on November 3, 33C on November 4, and

32.1C on November 5. Taupo¯ and Rotorua also exceeded 30C, and Wairoa reached 34.1C.

Niwa principal climate scientist Dr Brett Mullan noted the last

10 days of the month averaged

0.5C above average December temperatures.

If December’s temperatures continued the record-breaking trend, 2019 could become the fourth warmest year on record.

The current outlook for summer was warm and wet, with warmer water temperatures influencing warmer air temperatures, and a potential wind change bringing rainfall.

Spring was considered to be changeable and unpredictable and last month didn’t disappoint.

‘‘Despite the fact that it was really warm, we still had several episodes of unsettled weather – tens of thousands of lightning strikes, hail falls, the tornado down in Christchurch, as well.’’

Heavy hail storms, which hit both islands, and the 66,000 lightning strikes recorded around New Zealand and the Tasman Sea in just one day made November a notable month of extreme weather. But the ‘‘unsettled’’ weather and warmer temperatures weren’t shocking.

‘‘We’re quite frequently now seeing near record warm temperatures being observed in New Zealand these days and the

‘‘We’re quite frequently now seeing near record warm temperatures . . . and the main real reason for that is climate change.’’

Gregor Macara Niwa climate scientist

main real reason for that is climate change.

‘‘As the climate gets warmer, the likelihood of these hotter temperatures increases as well.’’

In his six years at Niwa, Macara said record-breaking high temperatures were more frequent than record-breaking low temperatures – ‘‘it’s not even a contest’’.

While warmer temperatures might be welcomed by some, it represented a bigger issue. The Paris Accord’s target of limiting warming to 1.5C was already being exceeded in New Zealand, Macara said.