Labour takes a hit but retains large lead

Labour has dipped, but retains a possible governing majority in the latest poll by One NewsColmar Brunton, while ACT has continued to surge.

The poll, coming 25 days before the election, has Labour retaining a large lead, dropping 5 per cent to 48 per cent, a result which would earn the party 62 seats in Parliament.

National has dropped a percentage point to 31 per cent, meaning it would have 41 MPs, losing 15 seats.

ACT has continued to surge, gaining 2 per cent to reach 7 per cent, after polling at 3 per cent or below earlier this year. The party could have nine MPs in Parliament, which would be its best result since the 2002 election.

The poll will come as a relief to the Green Party, which has come in above the 5 per cent threshold, at 6 per cent, which would guarantee its return to Parliament.

NZ First is at 2 per cent, unchanged since the last One News-Colmar Brunton poll, which could eliminate the party from Parliament.

Of the parties outside of Parliament, New Conservative has risen to 2 per cent, TOP has reached 1 per cent, the Ma¯ori Party has not moved on 1 per cent, and Advance NZ has registered 1 per cent in the poll.

Labour has been polling high since the Covid-19 crisis. The spread of the second outbreak has been controlled, and Labour has, in the intervening weeks, promised to bring in a higher tax bracket targeting the 2 per cent of people earning more than

$180,000 a year and double the country’s sick leave entitlement to 10 days.

National has been struggling for popularity in recent months. The party has been polling at lows unseen since 2003, with recent numbers coming in anywhere between 25.1 per cent and

38 per cent support.

It has possibly been buoyed due to the promise of tax cuts in the past week. Party leader Judith Collins last Thursday announced her party’s intentions to offer a temporary tax cut worth

$4.7 billion, paring back Labour’s promised spending between 60 to

75 per cent.

In the preferred prime minister rankings, Ardern continued to be the preference for 54 per cent of people polled. Collins dropped 2 per cent, coming in at 18 per cent.

NZ First leader Winston Peters was at 2 per cent, the same as ACT leader David Seymour.

Colmar Brunton polled 1008 voters for the poll, between last Thursday and Monday night. The poll has a maximum sampling error of 3.1 per cent.