TOWN IN RETREAT
How long can Franz Josef survive with no overseas tourists and several natural hazards – as the ice melts? Joanne Naish reports.
With its snow-capped mountains, steep, glaciated valleys and rainforest surrounds, Franz Josef is recognised as a World Heritage site by Unesco, but its longterm viability is in question as its
300-odd residents grapple with an existential crisis.
They must not only battle looming natural hazards like a massive earthquake and floodwaters that threaten the town, but are now struggling to stay afloat in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic.
When New Zealand closed its borders to international tourists last March, Franz Josef was one of the worst-affected areas. In Westland, tourism expenditure dropped 22.4 per cent in the year to September, against a national average of 16.5 per cent.
Dire new projections for the region’s tourism sector this week prompted local leaders to plead for government help. From March last year to September this year the region – including Franz Josef, Fox Glacier, O¯ karito, Whataroa, and Lake Moeraki – is projected to lose
84 per cent of its jobs, two-thirds of its businesses and 30 per cent of its population.
One of the biggest drawcards for tourists on the West Coast was the ability to get up close to a glacier. Only a few years ago they could take a short walk to the terminal faces or a guided walking tour directly on to the ice – options that are now impossible due to safety concerns amid melting ice.
The glaciers are now accessible only by air, or viewable from a distance.
GNS Science expects that when the Alpine Fault, which runs down Franz Josef’s main street, ruptures, it will shunt the ground by 8 metres and possibly trigger a landslide, with ‘‘loss of life and loss of capital likely to be very high’’.
An Otago University study said a
200m-wide ‘‘fault avoidance zone’’ should be created to prevent further development in the area to reduce the risk.
Westland District Council had proposed implementing the zone in
2017, but councillors scrapped it, ignoring warnings from prominent earthquake scientists.
For accommodation owner Logan Skinner the Alpine Fault and the melting glaciers are a looming reality – but he is not worried about them.
‘‘The fault line has always been there. When it goes, the whole West Coast and even South Island will be affected, not just us. It doesn’t keep me awake at night. The river and Covid are the things I worry about, and the elephant in the room is the glaciers are melting.’’
His campground and motel units have been struggling with occupancy levels 4 per cent of what they were before the borders closed to international visitors.
‘‘It’s a dire situation for us. People are leaving, and you can’t blame them if you can get work with more hours elsewhere. Last year I had 15 staff but the last of my staff left because I can’t give them the hours, so there’s only me.’’
He worries about the town’s future if it does not hold on to sufficient accommodation, food, entertainment and activities to attract tourists when the borders reopen. ‘‘If we don’t keep a critical mass of businesses, the town won’t survive long-term,’’ he says.
His solutions include tax rebates, extension of the wage subsidy, the creation of a special economic zone or more interest-free government loans.
Another long-term problem for the town is the threat of the Waiho River, which is building up at a rate of about 30 centimetres a year and inundated a hotel and holiday park, forcing the evacuation of 200 people, in 2016.
The Waiho River bridge spectacularly collapsed in March
2019 during a storm which caused damage put at $4 million. The town was again cut off in December that year when State Highway 6 was closed for two weeks because of slips after a huge storm.
It was estimated the road closures cost the West Coast economy up to
$3m a day and several tour operators took the glacier country off their itinerary because of the unpredictability and risk of tourists getting stranded in the town.
A government-funded report in
2017 estimated it would cost almost
$300m to move the town, $67m to allow the river to fan out to the south and $64m to defend the town with stopbanks.
Four years later, no decision has been made. The previous government said it would spend
$24m on stopbanks and a new bridge, but new Regional Economic Development Minister Stuart Nash put the project on hold to review whether it was the best solution.
Niwa warns that climate change will increase the frequency and level of flooding and put pressure on stopbanks, leading to their maintenance and repair eventually becoming unaffordable or ineffective.
Skinner says the majority of locals have agreed the town should move in a ‘‘gradual slow drift northwards’’ but the stopbank would buy the town 10 years. ‘‘At the moment no-one is looking at the long-term future. Everyone is wondering how to survive this winter unless we get some Government support.’’
Two motels have shut to tourists since Covid-19 hit. The owners declined to comment.
Vicki Whittington says she closed the tourism business she and husband Brent had run for about four years. They tried dropping prices for a dwindling domestic market, but it wasnot sustainable.
She was lucky to still have a fulltime job managing the town’s heliport, but was sad to see their clay target shooting business close.
‘‘We poured our heart and soul into that business and our families helped us build it up. It’s very sad. We survived cyclones, big washouts, major road closures, just to be taken out by a pandemic.’’
Cafe manager Shelley Scott says business is very slow. ‘‘It’s dead. It’s like winter. Winter staff, winter income. We have had terrible weather until now but hopefully it will improve. But people see the forecast and don’t come to the West Coast.’’
Two hotels were mothballed by Scenic Hotel Group in April last year.
Group managing director Brendan Taylor says they have kept two hotels and a public bar open in Franz Josef and Fox Glacier, but ‘‘we have lost a lot of money keeping them open. It’s pretty bad. By October, we will have lost $3.5m just on our glacier hotels’’.
Queenstown is faring better because it is not so isolated, he says.
Occupancy rates dropped to 60 per cent in Queenstown, whereas Franz Josef was down to 20 per cent and Fox Glacier down to 5 per cent. Staff numbers had fallen from 150 to 25 in Franz Josef, and to only six in Fox.
Its recently built staff village, which can house 142, is sitting empty.
Westland District councillor Ian Hartshorne, who owns Franz Hire & Contracting, says the downturn is having a knock-on effect on his business and other tradies in town.
He believes the population has fallen to about 350 from 1000 last year.
Franz Josef firefighter Mike Charles says eight volunteers have moved away for work.
‘‘At the peak we had 12, and we are now down to four but a couple of locals have stepped up, and I’ve shoulder-tapped a couple, so we should be back to enough.’’
Associate Professor Caroline Orchiston, from the University of Otago’s Centre for Sustainability, says the issues are complex for residents and local government to tackle.
‘‘Lots of big, expensive infrastructure is needed to manage some of those risks, like stopbanks and moving the town,’’ she says. ‘‘But Franz Josef is no stranger to serious challenges. It has frequent road closures that cut them off, a melting glacier and a flood-prone river, and they have been resilient at fronting up to those challenges.’’
The valley is a special landscape with views to the sea from the tops of spectacular mountains, she says, and even without a glacier the area would still be amazing to visit.
Franz Josef Glacier lost 1.4km of
its length in the decade to 2018, the fastest rate of retreat ever recorded at the glacier.
Glaciologist Lauren Vargo says the situation will only get worse with climate change, even if we drastically reduce emissions now because glaciers take many years to respond to climate change.
‘‘In the worst-case scenario, which is business as usual, we will lose 80 per cent of the ice we see today.’’
Westland Mayor Bruce Smith says fundamental change is needed for the town to survive. ‘‘My view is that a gondola would bring about the fundamental change needed. Skyline wanted to do it, but it’s been in limbo. I’ve been prodding and pushing, but it needs Government backing,’’ he says.
He envisions the town will move northwards to Lake Mapourika in
the next 20 to 30 years. ‘‘We need to get the zoning correct for people to be encouraged to move to the north. In the meantime we need to protect the town with rockwalls.’’
The town could house a centre of excellence for conservation students, but what was needed in the short term was ‘‘bums in beds’’.
A change in the area’s national park plan was needed to allow for a gondola up the glacier valley. The Department of Conservation (DOC) put the idea out for consultation, but halted its review amid legal issues and said it needed to review the region’s Conservation Management Strategy (CMS) first.
Skyline Enterprises chief executive Geoff McDonald says the gondola is still undergoing feasibility work but is not necessarily dependent on ice levels. ‘‘There is still quite a fantastic view up there. We’ve just got to get through Covid and then think about it.’’
DOC’s South Westland operations manager, Wayne Costello, says visitor numbers in Franz Josef are down 68 per cent on last year.
The department had given work to 70 tourism workers through the Government’s $11m Jobs for Nature scheme.
The West Coast CMS is to be reviewed in full because of ‘‘several changing circumstances’’, he says, including increased weather events and the effects of climate change on access and safety.
A Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment spokeswoman says it has granted Development West Coast $400,000 for marketing and a share of a $7m fund to develop and promote events to attract domestic tourists.
An MBIE manager had visited the town and received requests from business owners for financial support, as well as mental health support.
Stuart Nash, the minister for both regional economic development and tourism, says he is aware iconic tourism destinations like Franz Josef are ‘‘doing it tough’’.
Tourism businesses can apply for almost $300m in interest-free loans, free business advice and other financial support, he says.
He would visit the area himself ‘‘once the parliamentary sitting calendar allows’’.
‘‘The pressures on our iconic tourism towns is wider than just the loss of international tourists and in many cases pre-dates our border closures.
‘‘Climate change and extreme weather events are taking their toll on the glaciers themselves, and the expensive roading, bridge, and flood resilience infrastructure down the entire coast. The challenge is big, but we are working hard to find sustainable solutions that will stand the test of time.’’