Covid-19 The big questions
The danger is bigger than ever, some say. Are we doing enough to stop the virus? Keith Lynch investigates.
The Covid-19 cases keep popping up. A Northland woman tested positive for the South African variant of the virus in January.
An Auckland cluster, this time caused by the UK variant, prompted a Level 3 lockdown for the country’s biggest city, and Level 2 restrictions elsewhere.
New cases within that cluster have been found.
The risk to New Zealand has increased, some epidemiologists say. New more virulent strains are here and, as a whole, the number of people diagnosed with Covid-19 in managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) has trended up since last year.
One of those, Professor Michael Baker, believes an increased risk of
Covid-19 taking hold necessitates stricter preventive measures to keep the risk at the same level it was at.
‘‘If you’re willing to accept a higher risk you need to be very explicit about that,’’ he says.
So, can we do more to keep
Covid-19 out? We examined some of the suggestions that come up regularly.
Why don’t we shut the borders to all new arrivals?
This is the nuclear option. Right now, entry into New Zealand is limited and there are a finite number of MIQ spots.
But we continue to see new cases and some community spread.
So why not shut the borders to new arrivals? No new people means no more Covid-19, right?
This is not going to happen. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has been very clear on this point: the country has a legal obligation to New Zealand citizens who wish to return to their home country.
Minister for Covid-19 Response Chris Hipkins says a deliberate decision was made a year ago to not shut the door.
‘‘Ultimately, the government does not believe it is right for New Zealanders to be refused entry to their own country.’’
OK, so why don’t we cut the number of people allowed in?
This has been widely floated. Some, including Baker, have suggested that we limit flights from high-risk countries like the UK, the US and India.
He has pointed out that ‘‘New Zealand is now accepting higher inbound traveller numbers (about 11,000 per month) than are allowed into all of Australia (about 10,000 per month for a country with five times the population)’’.
There are already restrictions on New Zealand citizens returning. Try to book an MIQ spot. There’s no availability through to the end of May.
Hipkins says the same. We ‘‘effectively already have a cap’’ because of the number of MIQ rooms available, and there are no plans to increase capacity.
‘‘Currently, room allocations are booked out to several months in advance and if we were to reduce that capacity we would be denying Kiwis their right to return home.’’
Baker remains insistent there is no legal reason to stop tighter restrictions.
He wrote in The Conversation in January: ‘‘The claim that citizens are rendered ‘stateless’ by such measures is a myth.’’
And he told Stuff this week: ‘‘But actually, the most pro-equity thing to do would be to keep out the virus and protest the most vulnerable.’’
Why don’t we close off the South Island when there’s an Auckland outbreak? (or make travel restrictions tighter?)
In August, after Ardern announced Level 3 restrictions in Auckland and Level 2 in the rest of the country in response to a community outbreak, there were reports of Aucklanders fleeing lockdown to visit Queenstown.
Alert Level 3 is meant to restrict travel between regions. There are quite a few exemptions though – everything from essential work to caring for animals.
During the first 72 hours of the August lockdown, more than 40,865 vehicles were stopped at checkpoints. About 600 were turned back.
During the most recent February lockdown, police stopped 54,075 cars at checkpoints. About 7 per cent, or
3800, of these were turned around. It’s worth noting police don’t collect data on why people were allowed through.
Inspector John Thornley, Acting Road Policing Manager for Ta¯ maki Makaurau, provided a statement saying it was mostly workers who needed access in, out, or through the region.
‘‘Ultimately, our police staff had to make decisions on a case-by-case basis and ensure that there was relevant documentation/ID or a Ministry of Health-issued exemption which allowed a person to enter or leave Auckland.’’
If people did not meet the exemption criteria, they had to apply for a business travel permit (administered by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment) or personal travel permit (administered by the Ministry of Health).
The Ministry of
Health received 4853 applications for personal travel up to the morning of February
18. A large number were approved automatically as they met the exemption criteria, a spokesperson said.
MBIE said 3284 businesses requested travel documents, resulting in 20,076 workers being given permission.
Baker does say restrictions are already built into the alert level but there’s no point ‘‘having regional lockdowns if people can jump on a plane, or drive to, their bach’’.
It’s not clear if people are doing this. But it is clear a lot of people can still travel during a Level 3 lockdown.
On restricting travel, Hipkins says: ‘‘We operate first and foremost a public health response out of an abundance of caution.’’
Make people isolate for much longer?
Baker has called on the government to impose a week-long home quarantine for returnees after they have left managed isolation facilities to reduce the risk of community spread.
The Northland woman tested negative twice in isolation. She left and subsequently tested positive.
Hipkins says 14 days in an isolation facility is enough as the median incubation period for Covid19 is 4-5 days.
‘‘The vast majority of those who become infected will develop symptoms within 14 days (one study reports that 97.5 per cent of infected people will develop symptoms within
11.5 days). The risk decreases during the 14-day period, and therefore 14
days is a proportionate response.’’
Make people isolate outside the big cities?
There are two issues at play here. Firstly, why not make people isolate outside the main population centres and help protect those economic powerhouses from lockdowns?
On that point, Hipkins says the Government has looked at alternatives for new arrivals, including ‘‘regional options’’.
But it would be too hard to relocate the staff needed to run the facilities, he says.
If the facilities cannot be relocated outside the cities, how about building a dedicated quarantine facility in Auckland?
This is what the National Party’s Covid-19 spokesperson, Chris Bishop, called on the Government to investigate.
The reason being: the managed isolation facilities are hotels, set up to care for guests, not to limit the spread of a virus.
In January, Stuff reported that Baker and fellow epidemiologist Nick Wilson had suggested alternatives including a purposebuilt quarantine facility and moving people to quarantine at military bases such as O¯ hakea.
Ardern has thrown cold water on the suggestion, saying it would not add much to the response.
‘‘Ultimately, many of the issues we face have not been about facilities but about the fact that we have humans within them, and from time to time you may well touch the same button or be in contact with the same rubbish bin, and that has been a path of transmission.’’
Some others pointed out that a new facility may not be necessary as we’re reaching the endgame with the pandemic, as a vaccine is now being rolled out.
Baker disagrees, saying even if the facility isn’t necessary now, it would be ‘‘legacy infrastructure for future pandemics, which are likely to get more common’’.
Why don’t we make masks compulsory?
Masks are now compulsory on public transport and flights even in Level 1. But Baker believes there need to be clearer guidelines on when mask wearing is appropriate.
‘‘At the moment the rules are all over the place and people are confused,’’ he says.
‘‘You go through densely packed border security areas where you’re passing by hundreds of people, and you’re not obligated to wear a mask, and then you put the mask on as you’re walking down the airbridge. It seems absurd.’’
He believes a new Alert Level system with mask use built in is necessary to allay this confusion.
Why don’t we make vaccines compulsory?
Mandating vaccines isn’t necessary, Baker says. It’s a medical intervention and something you need to avoid.
‘‘The problem is vaccine hesitancy rather than anti-vaxxers, who tend to be a surprisingly vocal and very small minority.’’
That said, he believes it may be necessary for some essential health workers, and it may well be mandated if people want to fly. For example, some countries require a vaccine certificate showing an individual has been inoculated against Yellow Fever.
Hipkins says the vaccine will not be compulsory, and the Government understands there are barriers for some Kiwis, including vaccine hesitancy and access.
Why don’t we use mobile phone data, like Taiwan, to determine people’s movements to manage outbreaks?
Taiwan has used mobile phone data to tackle Covid-19. The country uses cellphone location data or what’s called an ‘‘Electronic Fence System’’ to ensure arrivals in the country are quarantined.
Baker believes that New Zealand has been extremely wary of intruding on people’s privacy.
‘‘If this pandemic was much worse (in New Zealand), I think there might be a point where public safety does justify using big data, with suitable privacy safeguards.’’
We did not receive a response from the Government on this point.
Why don’t we stop people using New Zealand as a backdoor?
Stuff has reported hundreds of people have flown to Australia soon after leaving managed isolation.
In October and November alone, 549 people flew across the Tasman within 60 days of landing in New Zealand, taking advantage of the oneway travel bubble with Australia.
On this Hipkins says: ‘‘There is no evidence of any particular motivation for why people travel on to other countries in the months after landing in New Zealand. There is likely to be a variety of reasons for ongoing travel, and the travellers could include a number of New Zealand citizens.’’