The risk of worst-case terror attack ‘very high’

National security officials believe there is a ‘‘very high’’ risk of a significant terrorist attack occurring in the next three years, according to information from a classified report obtained by Stuff.

A summary of the Government’s ‘‘Terrorism Risk Profile’’, a classified report which informs the current counter-terrorism strategy, reveals the country’s national security agencies assessed the risk of a worst-case scenario attack occurring as ‘‘very high’’ within the five years from June 2019, causing death, injuries, and division among communities.

Such an attack, it was assessed, could come from unidentified people with extremist Right-wing ideology who have ‘‘intent and capability’’, or from ‘‘a small number’’ of Islamist extremists known to the agencies who could commit an unsophisticated attack, or from other, unspecified violent issue-motivated groups or individuals.

The risk profile summary, provided to Stuff in response to an Official Information Act request, reveals the concern held within the intelligence agencies and police about the possibility of an attack, at a time when the Government has promised significant reform of the national security apparatus in wake of the Christchurch mosque terror attacks.

The Government plans to host a hui on counter-terrorism reforms in Christchurch in June and, last week, the first reading of a new Counter-Terrorism Bill passed in Parliament.

The bill would broaden the scope of what has been considered terrorist activity, allowing law enforcement agencies to consider the planning or training for an attack as a terrorist activity, and provide warrantless search and entry powers.

The June 2019 Terrorism Risk Profile was produced months

after the Christchurch mosque terror attacks, by the police, Security Intelligence Service (SIS) and Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. The Christchurch mosque attacks ‘‘could potentially inspire a retaliatory or copycat attack’’, and be a motivating or radicalising event for years to come, the report said.

New Zealand’s risk profile was determined by an analysis of three worst-scenario attacks, which were not detailed in the summary. The likelihood of an attack occurring was ‘‘very high’’ in the next five years, and ‘‘likely to occur . . . once per 1-10 years’’.

Such an attack could mean ‘‘death, physical and psychological injuries, eroded public perceptions of safety, and exacerbation or creation of divisions in society along social, ethnic, religious or other lines,’’ according to the summary.

The ‘‘very high’’ risk rating was specific to the likelihood of a worst-case attack occurring within five years.

It differed from the national terrorism threat level, which captured the ‘‘current likelihood’’ and had since April 2019 been set at Medium, or ‘‘a terrorist attack is feasible and could well occur’’.

A subsequent counter-terrorism document provided to Stuff shows concern the Covid-19 pandemic had only worsened the risk of an attack occurring.

Massey University teaching fellow Dr John Battersby, who specialises in counter-terrorism and intelligence, said the risk profile was unsurprising and deliberately broad, as terrorism threats were difficult to detect.

The bill would broaden the scope of what has been considered terrorist activity.