Does PM need to rug up for winter of discontent?
Every winter is to some extent a winter of discontent. Leaky, draughty housing stock offers a stark reminder both that we don’t really live in the tropical paradise of our popular imagination, and that $1 million doesn’t go as far as it used to. Homelessness becomes more desperate and obvious. Winter is the time when many of our national illusions are stripped away.
Long-in-the-tooth politicos recall former prime minister Helen Clark’s winter of discontent in 2000, when business organisations mobilised in opposition to the new government’s reforms. After tractors rumbled through 55 centres throughout the country last week, should her protege Jacinda Ardern be bracing for a long winter?
The Groundswell demonstrations were ostensibly protesting against a laundry list of impositions on farmers and (as far as the ‘‘ute tax’’ is concerned, anyway) tradies. Like any large gathering, they also attracted those with more eccentric axes to grind, from use of the Ma¯ ori language to the links between fish and chips and international communism.
The demonstrations, in themselves, will not cause the Beehive undue worry. The makeup of the protests (however well attended) suggested few disgruntled Labour voters. And the question of how the organisers, after a logistically impressive first effort, can maintain momentum remains up in the air.
However, it coincides with unexpectedly high inflation figures, as the bonanza of printed cash globally and locally flows into consumer prices, which will result in a mortgage squeeze at least on first-home buyers in the recent FOMO frenzy. While public support for the Government’s Covid response remains high, and will be fortified by Australia’s outbreaks, it has slowly declined as implementation splutters, from the patchy vaccine rollout to inexplicable inertia on saliva tests and border worker immunisation.
All of which are like drips through a Wellington villa’s ceiling, slowly reminding the Government that political normality is never too far away.
Because coming up are more reforms that affect other sectors – and segments of the vote – more directly. Most obviously, the Government must make decisions about the Climate Change Commission’s recommendations, which (as distinct from made-up conspiracies such as He Puapua’s separate government) will actually touch most New Zealanders in their everyday lives and demand more of a sacrifice than simply remembering the recycling.
Legislation for Fair Pay Agreements, a much more radical employment reform than those that precipitated Clark’s blizzard in 2000, will be introduced soon. Business is increasingly feeling the squeeze at the border, and while NZ has laws against scalping tickets for major sporting events, there is apparently no political will to police scalping of entry into the country by bots which outrace real New Zealanders to the prized spots.
Just over a year since Judith Collins became National leader, the question remains whether she has positioned the party to take advantage of these very mainstream issues, or whether she is fighting over the scraps with a resurgent ACT and David Seymour, increasingly relishing the role of ‘‘real’’ leader of the opposition.
ACT benefits from retaining a core team from the last parliamentary term, Seymour, and senior staffers Andrew Ketels, now chief of staff, and Brooke van Velden, now an MP and deputy leader. (Disclaimer: Van Velden was a colleague at the PR firm I used to work for.) They spent three years working extremely closely and agilely together and ACT is routinely beating National to the punch in media and communications.
At least one news story asked whether National was simply copying ACT. That would be a mistake, if only because ACT is targeting only a minority part of the traditional National voter base – that is, those more naturally to the right, and not the median voters who installed Clark, John Key and then Ardern in power.
Collins is battling for a share of the vote she doesn’t necessarily need in order to become prime minister. And it’s not clear that it’s a fight she can win. Seymour, as a third-party leader, enjoys the luxury of never having to worry about being prime minister. (If some think ACT is poised to supplant National as the natural party of the centre-right, many more thought the same of the Greens, NZ First, and the Alliance, RIP, on the centre-left.)
National has been thrown a lifeline with the appearance of a $2.75 million grant to a gangrelated addiction programme: a sweet spot issue where Collins’ personal ‘‘crusher’’ brand, public opinion and National’s current populism coincide.
Collins herself also looks more comfortable in recent weeks, the brutal political execution of two of her senior MPs seemingly having the same revitalising effect as one of Bill English’s walkruns.
If Collins has been out in the cold recently, she may reflect on whether it is because of the seasons, or because she has been in another party’s shadow.
Decisions about the Climate Change Commission’s recommendations will
... demand more of a sacrifice than simply remembering the recycling.