Expect monkeypox cases – epidemiologist

Monkeypox is likely to surface in New Zealand in about midAugust, soon after borders reopen at the end of July, according to an epidemiologist.

‘‘My best guess is we will see cases surfacing around the second week of August, because it takes four or five days [for cases to emerge],’’ Dr Arindam Basu, an associate professor at the University of Canterbury, said.

The prediction comes as case numbers have tripled in Europe in the past fortnight, as the outbreak that began in the UK in May continues to spread.

Basu did not believe there would be a widespread outbreak in New Zealand. ‘‘We will expect a few cases, but there will not be many ... it’s not going to overwhelm our health system.’’

He expected New Zealand would be able to contain cases through public communication and contact tracing. A PCR test was now available, the Ministry of Health confirmed, but it said ‘‘validation of the first few cases would be undertaken in Australia’’. ‘‘In the event of a case here, we will concentrate on contact tracing,’’ the ministry said.

Transmission was through close contact and the risk of spread within the general community is low, it said.

Cases in Australia (15 confirmed, one suspected) have been linked to the border or immediate household, the ministry said.

Infectious disease physician Massimo Giola said while the disease may reach us through the border, the first cases would likely be detected in sexual health clinics. ‘‘The most likely scenario is someone coming back from Europe will present with rashes.’’

Most cases appeared to be among men who had sex with men, and some symptoms were similar to herpes, he said.

Giola, who specialises in sex

ual health, said clinics were preparing for possible cases and clinicians knew what tests to ask for. The ministry said it was working with drug-buying agency Pharmac to explore options for access to smallpox vaccines that could be considered for the prevention of monkeypox.

The Government made monkeypox a notifiable illness a month ago, meaning health authorities must be told about any confirmed case of the disease.

The first symptoms of monkeypox include one or more of the following, according to the Ministry of Health: headache, acute onset of fever (>38.0C), chills, swollen lymph nodes, muscle and body aches, backache and tiredness.

Current advice is that people should isolate at that point and contact Healthline or a sexual health clinic.

Common cold symptoms can mark early warning signs, with a cough and sneezing, Basu said.

About five or six days since the first symptoms began, people start seeing fluid-filled pox appearing on their face and torso, Basu said.

‘‘At that point people are not only infectious, but they start getting quite sick.’’

The rash, which typically looks similar to chicken pox, appears after a few days followed by scabbing. For most people, their skin gets better on its own within a few weeks.

If anyone is concerned about monkeypox, they should contact Healthline or seek medical advice.

‘‘. . . it’s not going to overwhelm our health system in any way.’’

Dr Arindam Basu Associate professor at the University of Canterbury