Which way to turn in a more dangerous world?
Caught between China’s quest for global ascendancy and Australia’s greater closeness to traditional allies in response, which “independent” foreign policy course should New Zealand steer under a new Government? Tim Hurdle takes a look.
The world is a dangerous place. A brutal war in Ukraine and the violence of the Middle East feature in our daily news. There is no longer respect for the United Nations as a forum to resolve conflict.
New Zealand always counsels a peaceful resolution, wanting everyone to be friends. But things are cutting up rough and our part of the planet has its own potential flashpoints.
New Zealand likes to claim to an “independent” foreign policy and has so far taken a less concerned approach to the growing rivalry between China and the United States.
We have always been quick to treat China well.
Our diplomatic dialogue celebrates the early milestones in the relationships – the “firsts” – when we led Chinese integration into the global system. China is our largest trading partner and a major economic influence.
China is working towards a pivotal role in the world order, asserting ascendancy as a dominant power – particularly in Asia. In the past decade,
it has become known for aggressive “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy which has only further inflamed concerns about its intentions. China’s rapid military build-up has increased the potential for military conflict in the region, encouraging other countries to modernise their military forces.
Understanding the Chinese discontent and desire to be more powerful is complicated. Some observers point to the impact of the Japanese military invasion of China in the 1930s as the cause.
China uses social media to influence global public opinion.
This includes a Shanghai-based Kiwi who changed from pets and food blogging, to defending the Chinese system.
He has described Australia as “brainwashed” and accused the West of a “systemic slander campaign”.
China’s leadership has become increasingly hostile to the Western democratic model of the United States and Great Britain. And China wants the United States kicked out of the Asia-Pacific.
Managing this contest will be the most significant strategic challenge of this coalition Government. New Zealand doesn’t like choosing between friends.
The threats to our trade, safety and prosperity are escalating as countries seek to gain advantage and power over others.
As a small country we need to stick up for a united and fair international system, that protects all interests and deals with errant behaviour.
Our most important relationship is with Australia, our only formal ally and best friend. We are economically and socially integrated with Australia..
The Aussies also want to stick up for freedom, democracy and “a fair go”.
China attempted to punish Australia’s pushback by targeting its wine exports to China. The restrictions led to a significant decline in the Australian wine industry. The dispute became emblematic of the broader economic and political tensions between the two nations.
The Australians have taken the view that Beijing has become bullying and aggressive. China’s military build-up contests wider Australia’s interests and its close relationship with the United States.
The Australian response to China has been to bind with traditional allies more tightly, through the Aukus arrangement.
This has major implications for New Zealand's strategic outlook and relationships.
Australia is effectively adding to the US Navy Pacific Fleet by purchasing US attack submarines and would struggle to avoid involvement in conflict with China in Asia. Australian policy matches domestic concerns, which show 75% of Australians believe China will pose a military threat to Australia within the next two decades. They have adopted the approach of Crocodile Dundee when approached with a knife (as in, come up with a bigger knife).
Australia is also working to enhance its relations across Asia, with more military engagement with Japan and Korea and the Philippines – the potential frontline. It is intently focused on de-escalating aggression.
It aims to build the “collective security of the Indo-Pacific” as a way of reducing Sino-American tension.
And this is where New Zealand has traditionally excelled, as a bridge builder.
As a small, agreeable nation, we do not pose a threat, but must be part of the robust collective approach.
This will demonstrate to China that the unified nations of the Indo-Pacific want a prosperous and democratic shared future.
By creating a regional framework across the security, trade and economic areas, we make clear to China that we won’t accept bullying and sabre-rattling to cower countries.
We can advocate “getting along” as a far safer route than open conflict, but we must be a clear and active voice for democratic values.
Strength in numbers works in global diplomacy and must be backed with strong and effective military forces.
We can’t leave the burden to other countries to protect our trade routes and democracy.
Sometimes the bully needs to understand that actions will be met with real consequences, that they might not like. When heading down a dark alley, bring your mates and a big stick.