Lumbering European defence sector cranks up in face of Russian threat
The race to stave off disaster in Ukraine’s war against Russia is unfolding in the battle-scarred fields and forests of Eastern Europe and, in a small way, a quiet wooded area of southwest Finland.
The Nammo artillery factory, which now operates 24 hours a day, seven days a week, has increased its output of 155mm shells fourfold since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The scramble reflects an effort intensifying across the continent, as European nations seek to accelerate the production of weapons needed to sustain Ukraine and to harden their own defences against a heightened Russian threat.
In Washington, the outlook for President Joe Biden’s US$61 billion (NZ$98b) aid package looks bleak, in the face of prolonged stalling by congressional Republicans. While White House officials have voiced confidence that Congress will eventually relent, they have presented no alternatives to securing the funds necessary to arm Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking to Western leaders in Germany last week, made an urgent appeal for fresh weapons and ammunition, a growing scarcity of which US and Ukrainian officials cited as the chief factor in Kyiv’s decision to cede the city of Avdiivka to Russian forces.
European nations, two years after the invasion, are struggling to expand defence manufacturing fast enough to meet Ukraine’s immediate needs. European Union officials now acknowledge that member states will be able to provide Ukraine only half of the bloc’s earlier target of 1 million 155mm rounds by this northern spring.
James Black, a defence and security researcher at Rand Europe, said Europe was racing to mobilise its industry to a wartime footing, but the time required to build production lines and train staff played into Russia's hands.
The Kremlin, meanwhile, has managed to defy Western sanctions and obtain support from North Korea and Iran.
Kyiv’s needs are not limited to artillery. Western officials acknowledge the potential for mounting civilian losses if its supply of air defence interceptors lapses in coming months.
Camille Grand, who served as Nato’s assistant secretary general for defence investment in 2016-2022, said that European leaders, despite their strong statements of support, had failed to shake their countries out of peacetime mode.
Across the continent, officials have touted their progress. Last month, Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg heralded a deal for US$1.2b in 155mm shells.
In Germany, defence giant Rheinmetall is building new artillery production facilities, while France is working with its defence firms to reduce manufacturing times for the Caesar howitzer system and Mistral air defence missiles.
Eastern flank nations, the most vulnerable to Russia’s reach, are making especially dramatic investments. Estonia and Latvia are banding together to purchase German air defence equipment, while Poland’s new government is scrambling to find European sources for its massive military scale-up. Industry officials in Europe say defence firms complain that governments have been slow to sign contracts or match their promises with actual funds. And Europe must overcome the effects of a deeply fragmented defence industry that is composed in large part of national firms with deep relationships with their respective governments.
European officials acknowledge the arrangement has resulted in the kind of duplication now on display in Ukraine, where local forces have had to manage a bewildering array of systems donated by Western allies. For example: European nations operate 17 types of main battle tanks, compared with the single US version: the M1 Abrams.
Further challenges include a reluctance to share sensitive security information,and the need to navigate public opinion. Despite widespread support for Ukraine, military spending is unpopular in many European countries. And though the urgency of collective defence has energised European leaders, whether they can sustain it over time remains unknown.