Selectors need 20/20 vision
Don’t let this month’s results against Australia with an injury-hit team fool you – the Black Caps will be genuine contenders when the Twenty20 World Cup rolls around in June. Perhaps even greater contenders at the outset than they were at the last three events, in 2022, 2021 and 2016, not to mention the last two one-day international World Cups, in 2023 and 2019.
Starting with the 2015 ODI World Cup, the Black Caps have made it to the semifinals at major white-ball tournaments six times out of six.
They’ve also made it to two finals – at the 2021 T20 event and the 2019 ODI event – without yet winning it all.
What is exciting about their chances this time around is the options at the disposal of coach Gary Stead – who has been at the helm for four of those semifinal appearances – and captain Kane Williamson – who has been at the helm for five.
Stead and fellow selector Sam Wells will have some big decisions to make in the coming months, not only with regard to finalising their 15, but with regard to what their best XI looks like.
Across the three home series this summer – a 3-1 series defeat to Australia, who won the rain-affected dead rubber at Eden Park in Auckland yesterday; a 4-1 win over Pakistan and a 1-1 draw with Bangladesh – the Black Caps have called on 19 different players, with Michael Bracewell a 20th who might yet be considered.
There is one away series to come before the World Cup – five matches in Pakistan in mid-April – but the Black Caps won’t have their Indian Premier League stars for those: Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Rachin Ravindra, Glenn Phillips, Daryl Mitchell, Mitchell Santner, Lockie Ferguson and Trent Boult.
All of those players should be there come June, as should Finn Allen, Mark Chapman, Jimmy Neesham, Tim Seifert and Ish Sodhi.
The big question will be around the other two seamers, with Matt Henry, Adam Milne, Ben Sears and Tim Southee in the mix there.
The other two players to have taken the field this summer are batter Will Young* and all-rounder Josh Clarkson, who will likely need injuries – or a strong run of form in Pakistan – to make the cut.
Where it gets curly, no matter which seamers are selected, is when the time comes to go from 15 to 11.
That is especially so after Ravindra’s innings of 68 off 35 in the first match against Australia in Wellington last Wednesday.
The man he effectively replaced in the Black Caps’ lineup – Williamson – has only scored that many runs that fast once in his 89-match career.
Everything we’ve seen from Ravindra suggests that won’t be the case once he has played 89 T20s – and he would also put another spin-bowling option into the New Zealand XI in conditions where that might prove useful.
It’s obviously not as simple as that. Williamson is a master of adapting to conditions and situations and has been the leader of this team for eight years. But it’s hard to see how else you fit Ravindra in, and after his ODI World Cup displays last year, it feels like it would be a mistake to leave him out.
Stead has made plenty of big calls in his six years in charge of the Black Caps, but his solution to this logjam might prove to be his biggest one yet.