‘Massive churn’ in migration
The latest migration statistics show both net immigration and the “churn” of people moving to or from New Zealand reaching massive levels, ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says.
Stats NZ estimates that New Zealand attracted a net 133,835 immigrants in the year to the end of January, after accounting for people emigrating out of the country.
That is not a record, but only because it now believes annual net immigration peaked a few months ago, at a level even higher than it had previously thought.
Its latest revised estimate is that there were a net 141,403 immigrants in the year to the end of November, whereas last month it had believed that annual net migration peaked at 134,381 in the year to the end of October.
Stats NZ said its provisional estimates of 257,200 migrant arrivals and 123,300 migrant departures in the year to the end of January were both the highest on record for an annual period.
Its estimates mean it believes a record 380,500 people essentially swapped countries during the period.
Zollner said this represented a massive turnover of people.
“I was in Australia last week, and the number of young Kiwis I was introduced to was a bit depressing,” she said. “Australia has clearly pulled away from us in terms of real wage growth, and so it’s going be harder to hang on to skilled people.”
The high level of net immigration was creating winners and losers, she said.
“It's obviously helping ease supply constraints in the labour market, which is great for businesses — less great for those at the unskilled end of the labour force.”
Stats NZ figures continue to suggest immigration is tracking down, however.
On a monthly basis, it believes net migration peaked at 16,165 in March last year, and fell back to 5259 in January. Its migration estimates are subject to revision more than a year after their release.
This is because it counts someone as an immigrant based on its calculation of the chances they will spend at least 12 out of the next 16 months living here.
Similarly, it classifies someone as having emigrated if it thinks they are going to spend more than 12 out of the next 16 months out of the country.
As such, the figures count a lot of people who might not fit the traditional image of an immigrant or emigrant, such as people who are on working holidays here or overseas, and students travelling here or overseas to study.
Its past estimates of net migration had been revised higher because it was finding that fewer people than it thought left the country for more than a year late last year.