NZ on track to meet targets, but not for methane
The high-uptake of electric vehicles means New Zealand is likely on track to meet its net-zero carbon goal for all greenhouse gasses except methane, the Climate Commission suggests.
However its assessment was based on policies under the former Labour Government and won’t allay fears the National-led coalition Government has watered down the response to climate change after it axed a number of carbon-cutting initiatives.
Climate Change Commission chairperson Dr Rod Carr said the Government had some key decisions to make, but said there were many opportunities in the green transition.
“These things won't happen on their own because the transition is going to occur. The question is do we want it to happen at a pace that we can manage under our control, or do we want it to turn up expensive and late?”
The commission released its draft advice and ambitious new carbon targets for its fourth emissions budget, which covers 2036 to 2040, yesterday. The advice suggests the fourth emissions budget should be set at 134 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent. The budgets are staggered, and each is lower than the previous one.
The commission yesterday also revised down the targets for the first three budgets – the first because the commission had more accurate accounting of some emissions, while the second and third budgets were changed because more trees had also been planted than projected, so there was more carbon dioxide being sucked from the atmosphere than initially forecast.
But it warned a more balanced approach is needed to reduce net green house gas emissions in the years to come, without relying on the planting of exotic trees.
The Government next has to make an emissions reduction plan in order to meet the emissions budget, before December 31.
It has yet to present its plan to meet the emissions budget for 2026 to 2030, Carr said, so the fiscal implications of its policy programme won’t come out for another year.
The commission was also seeking input as to whether it should include emissions from international shipping and aviation in the 2050 target. It found this would be consistent with its approach so far, but was asking for views from the public and stakeholders.
Carr said the commission had rough estimates of the cost of doing so, but that it would not blow out the budget. The advice also warned that electricity demand is expected to increase by 59% before 2050, as a result of the green transition. This is forecast to put huge pressure on the system, and between two and three new wind farms would need to be built each year to meet the demand.
The draft advice also made a number of assumptions, including that oil gas will be phased out by 2050, more people will be walking and cycling and using public transport, and that all light vehicles entering the fleet would be electric by 2040 – with petrol and diesel imports fully phased out. It assumes farmers would have reduced their stock rates by 23% for dairy, and 12% for sheep and beef by 2050, and that new and emerging methane reduction technologies will have been taken up. Agricultural emissions, now making up 51% of total emissions, would reduce by 24%.
Carr said there was variation in the quality of production between dairy herds, and their environmental impacts. He said there were opportunities for farmers to improve their breeding, feeding, and farm management practices.