PM’s Asian mission another piece in foreign affairs jigsaw
New Zealand has talked a good game about its partnership with Asean before, but too often ambitious rhetoric hasn’t been backed up, writes David Capie.
Christopher Luxon arrived in Southeast Asia on Sunday night for his first extended overseas trip as prime minister. Over the course of the coming week he will visit Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines. For the latter two nations it will be the first bilateral visit by a New Zealand leader in over a decade. Astonishingly for the Philippines, it’s the first since 2006.
To have the prime minister visiting Southeast Asia so early in his tenure is a welcome sign of attention to a part of the world that is vitally important for New Zealand’s security and prosperity.
Southeast Asia is a region under pressure. It is struggling to manage fallout from a brutal civil war in Myanmar, the rising costs of climate change, as well as the push and pull of US-China rivalry, most notably with flashpoints in the South China Sea and across the Taiwan Strait.
Yet despite its challenges, Southeast Asia also remains one of the most dynamic parts of the global economy. While economic headwinds are buffeting much of the world, Southeast Asian economies are charging ahead with an average growth rate above 5%.
The region’s 650 million people include a rapidly growing middle class that is looking for the products and services New Zealand is selling: high quality food, education and tourism.
Unlike the challenging India market, New Zealand already has a free trade agreement with all 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) bloc. Hence the high-powered business delegation that Luxon is taking along with him.
For a group of Asia’s small and middle powers, Asean has an outsized diplomatic influence. It organises the summits and cooperative “architecture” that gives New Zealand and other smaller powers a voice in discussions about regional economic and security issues.
We have a strong interest in seeing those arrangements survive and flourish. We don’t want a region where only the big players set the agenda and call the tune. And we can learn much from how Southeast Asian partners balance the competing demands of the great powers and work to create space to pursue their own interests.
Woody Allen once said 90% of success in life is showing up. On that score, the PM’s trip, coming on the heels of his visit to Australia’s special summit with Asean leaders in Melbourne, is a powerful signal that New Zealand wants to actively engage with key Southeast Asian partners, to talk about our mutual concerns, interests and ambitions.
It’s a good start, but the real test will be what comes next.
New Zealand has talked a good game about its partnership with Asean before, but too often ambitious rhetoric hasn’t been backed up with additional resources or high level political attention.
An Mfat brief to the incoming Government late last year noted the sharp disparity in attention the region had received in ministerial visits compared to European capitals. Worse, New Zealand’s distraction has come at a time when others have significantly lifted their efforts in the region.
That means one challenge for Luxon will be to square his ambition for a more “energetic” and engaged New Zealand with the demands his Government is seeking in cost-cutting across government.
Next year New Zealand will celebrate 50 years of ties with Asean. A key goal is to conclude a comprehensive strategic partnership – diplomat speak for formalising a broad, deep relationship – with the group. But Southeast Asian leaders will be curious to know what practically New Zealand will bring to the table to demonstrate it is a credible supporter. On this trip, close defence partners like Singapore will be equally keen to learn more about the coalition’s plans for reviving a depleted New Zealand Defence Force.
Luxon’s trip also has significance for reasons beyond the meetings in Singapore, Bangkok and Manila. As the coalition Government pursues closer defence and security ties with Australia and the United States, an increasingly common refrain from critics is that New Zealand is “retreating into the Anglosphere”.
Deepening ties with long-standing “Western” partners, potentially joining the non-nuclear second pillar of Aukus and cosying up to Nato, can only come at the expense of ties with Asia or the Pacific, or so the argument goes.
The priority Luxon has attached to engaging with Asean leaders so early in his term belies those claims and underscores that closer links with “traditional partners” do not preclude closer links with others too.
Here the Australian experience is instructive. While Canberra has deepened its ties with Washington and is moving ahead with small groups like Aukus and the Quad, it has also focused heavily on building relationships in Southeast Asia.
Since May 2022, there have been more than 40 visits to the region by senior ministers, including four by PM Anthony Albanese. Foreign Minister Penny Wong has visited every Asean country except Myanmar. Australia has stepped up on cyber, climate, health and maritime security. And it’s hard to move in a Southeast Asian capital these days without running into a delegation of Australia’s New Colombo Plan scholarship students.
None of that happens for free. New Zealand can’t match Australia for scale, but it can take a somewhat more modest leaf out of Canberra’s book when it comes to the importance of investing in our relationships with our closest Asian neighbours.
It’s a reminder that we don’t need to choose between doubling down with our traditional partners or seeking deeper ties with Asia. In a more challenging and unpredictable world, we need to do both.
We don’t want a region where only the big players set the agenda and call the tune. And we can learn much from how Southeast Asian partners balance the competing demands of the great powers and work to create space to pursue their own interests.