Ifs and buts of the Super Rugby playoffs race
The ridiculously low post-season bar in Super Rugby Pacific does have one positive spinoff. Every team – even those perennial strugglers the Crusaders – has something to play for as the competition heads into its five-week finishing stretch.
We jest about the Crusaders, of course, but thanks to SRP’s forgiving playoffs threshold – eight of the 12 teams play finals footy – even a nightmare campaign like the champions of the last seven straight years have had, with two victories from their first nine matches, serves up a lifeline.
The Crusaders sit only three points off eighth spot heading into a very winnable home clash against the Reds on Saturday, and may squeeze into the top eight with three wins from here. Certainly, four would do the trick comfortably.
And for a side due to get some quality players back at the tail end of the season, and who are well versed at finding their way to championships on the road, they would represent a nightmare quarterfinal opponent indeed.
The red-and-blacks will have identified three bankers over their remaining schedule – the Reds, Highlanders (in Dunedin) and Moana at home to finish on – and then hope to grab one of their two difficult fixtures against the Brumbies on the road and Blues at home to be sure of a playoff spot.
The Highlanders, who sit eighth on 15 points coming into the round, are the other Kiwi team negotiating the perilous battle for probably the final two post-season spots, with the bottom six clubs all still in contention. Even wooden-spooners the Western Force are not without hope should they find their mojo over the next month or so.
The Highlanders’ route, though, looks a little more problematic. They face Moana Pasifika in Nuku’alofa on Saturday in a clash that has banana skin written all over it, and then have the Crusaders (home), Blues (away) and Hurricanes (away) among their remaining four fixtures. Their margin for error has all but evaporated.
It’s a different story for the Hurricanes, Blues and Chiefs up in the calmer waters of the top half of the table. They are playing now to nail down home quarterfinals, or in the case of the big two at the top of the standings, potentially home semifinals.
For the Chiefs, eight back from the second-placed Blues, a top-two spot might be out of reach, even with a friendlyish finish that includes the Force (home), Moana (away) and Rebels (away). Their problem will be the last fortnight, with the Canes at home and Blues away.
Clayton McMillan will still entertain hopes of catching the pacesetters, though will likely prioritise catching a rhythm ahead of the knockout rounds and leaving a rollercoaster regular season in his dust.
If you were a betting type, you would favour the Canes for the minor premiership, and all-important home advantage as long as they’re in the finals.
Their finish is a lot easier than the Blues’, with the lowly Tahs, Moana and Highlanders among their remaining fixtures.
Stern Vern Cotter’s Blues, on the other hand, have their four Kiwi rivals over the final four weeks and will have to keep their eyes on the ball right till the finishing tape.
Still, the way the Auks are travelling, with six wins on the bounce heading into a very winnable Friday night clash in Melbourne,
it’s hard not to see that next Saturday’s all-Kiwi affair at Eden Park against the Hurricanes might not end up deciding the No 1 spot.
It all means so much. Or so little, depending on how you view it. Remember 2022? The Blues went on a 15-match winning tear all the way to the final, and then no-showed when it mattered most against the Crusaders at Eden Park. Similar story with the Chiefs last year.
It’s nice to be home at finals time, but it guarantees zilch.