Budget cause for Little celebration

Andrew Little planned to celebrate his 50th birthday on Friday night at a mate’s place with a few beers, a small spread including glazed ham, and probably some Dave Dobbyn favourites playing in the background.

There were bound to be a few cheesy gifts among the mix of birthday offerings; there usually are.

But the present Little really needs isn’t due for a week or so yet – the one that will come giftwrapped in Bill English’s seventh Budget, later this month, when it is confirmed that the election-year trumpeting of a surplus has evaporated.

The Government’s failure to deliver a surplus this financial year should not come as a surprise to anyone when the Budget is unveiled on May 21.

English and Prime Minister John Key have taken the sting out of the news by drip-feeding hints of a worsening picture over a period of several months.

That the surplus has morphed over that period from a muchvaunted measure of fiscal credibility to more of a hit-andmiss affair – like landing a 747 on a pinhead is Key’s description – doesn’t make the failure any less messy.

National had pinned its credentials as the better economic manager on achieving the surplus within 12 months of the last election.

Coming out of the global financial crisis, National’s pursuit of a surplus as the holy grail has always resonated with a newly debt-averse population.

Missing the target by a year or two is hardly going to keep voters awake at night. But the fact that it has evaporated so soon after the election, and against the backdrop of a socalled ‘‘rock star’’ economy’’, turns down the volume on the economic success story National has been selling. And it leaves a big hole in English’s seventh Budget.

Labour, and Little, will be hoping to seize on that to regain some momentum.

Six months on from assuming the leadership, the honeymoon period has been a low-key one for Little. Some of that has been down to the need to rebuild within Labour – both structural and relationships – in the postDavid Cunliffe era.

Standing aside in the Northland byelection also made Little a bystander. And while it might have been the right decision tactically, it delivered Winston Peters a platform that he is able to keep milking.

The result is Little has failed to fully capitalise on the vacuum in the Greens caused by the decision of co-leader Russel Norman to stand down.

Even events like ‘‘ponytail -gate’’, the saga of the prime minister, the waitress and the ponytail, have robbed Little of some oxygen.

Little could have forced his way into the story by using the return to Parliament last week to hold the prime minister up to ridicule for his behaviour.

But Key’s handling of the story has left Labour very little room to exploit it further without turning any public backlash back on itself.

Hounding Key in Parliament after his obvious contrition, and his willingness to front up immediately over the allegations, would look too much like kicking a man when he is down and go against the Kiwi way. Public sympathy would be just as likely to swing in behind Key, if it has not already.

But Little’s handling of the matter suggests he is just as adept at sniffing the winds of public opinion as his rival.

Kicking over the coals probably won’t earn him any kudos from voters. But he knows he doesn’t need to. Ponytail-gate will define Key, as Painter-gate

His biggest challenge will be rewriting the legacy National has crafted for the last Labour government of profligacy, waste and fiscal recklessness.

did for Helen Clark after a doodle passed off as her own turned out to have been painted by a professional.

It will likely even turn some of Little’s perceived weaknesses into strengths. Just as Key’s humour and optimism resonated with voters after nine years of Clark, Little’s solid, no-nonsense ‘‘cut the crap’’ style is a marked contrast with Key.

The temptation over recent years, of course, has been to ‘‘humanise’’ Labour leaders more to compete with Key’s everyman appeal and Little has not been immune to that. A case in point? A radio interview last week which strayed into hilarity over pubic hair. But Little might be wise not to downplay his dour side completely.

His biggest challenge, however, will be rewriting the legacy National has crafted for the last Labour government of profligacy, waste and fiscal recklessness.

Labour’s inability to counter that legend despite the fact that most of its flagship economic policies – like KiwiSaver and Working for Families – remain intact has been one of its biggest failings in Opposition.

National’s success in steering the country through the GFC to a much softer landing than experienced around the rest of the world has given voters even less of a reason to peel away. The disappearing surplus won’t suddenly make them think twice.

But it is another blow to the Government’s credibility at a time when things seem to be running against it.

And it gives Little a readymade platform to turn the Budget to Labour’s advantage for once.