Time to steady the ship or rock the boat

Is this the Budget when National finally starts testing the boundaries of its huge election year mandate?

Has the time come when National will deliver more than a nod to its core constituency? Or will it be more of the slowlyslowly-catchee-monkey approach that has been the hallmark of the Key-English Government so far?

The weekend’s gathering of National Party faithful north of Wellington saw some of those questions asked, though that didn’t overshadow what was a mostly celebratory affair.

It is, after all, only eight months since National swept back into power with an increased mandate. The party faithful can still be excused some hearty backslapping over such an astonishing feat.

But third terms are also a time for reflection. And banana skin moments like the prime minister’s ponytail-pulling antics, and a shock loss like Northland, are cautionary reminders that nothing lasts forever.

Third terms are also a period when governments can increasingly be pulled one way by public opinion, and in the opposite direction by a restless core constituency who fear that time is running out on their opportunity to carve out ‘‘the legacy’’.

Labour faced that in its third term with a hardcore base that aggressively pursued socially progressive reforms, which saw the Clark government increasingly estranged from its broader constituency.

The Nanny State label became entrenched. Labour is still counting the cost. Once lost, those voters can take a very long time to return home.

With National’s base now so broad and diverse, that risk is heightened. But with ACT now seriously weakened, the hardcore purists in the party realistically have nowhere else to go. And National has far more to lose by alienating the broad swathe of voters in the centre that now call National home.

There are no indications so far that Bill English’s seventh Budget will be a radical departure from the ‘‘no surprises’’ approach of the past.

That is supported by the decision not to pursue the surplus ‘‘at all costs’’, which would have meant deep cuts across the board.

The sweetener was last week’s reduction in ACC levies, a move that will have made the core supporters happy.

When National first swept into power in 2008, with the global financial crisis threatening to plunge the world into depression, the hardcore within the party saw it as an opportunity not to be squandered.

Like the Lange Government of 1984, National could use the economic crisis as the catalyst for swift and fundamental reform.

The circumstances were extreme enough for the public to forgive John Key for breaking campaign trail promises. Or so the thinking among some on the right of the party went.

They seriously misread Key and sidekick English, who have always favoured slow, incremental change that never gets too far ahead of public opinion. The strident calls to ditch the likes of Working for Families, KiwiSaver and interest-free student loans were ignored.

Rather than slash and burn, the Government’s instinct during the recession was to cushion the blow with extra support, not less.

And in the process Key and his government built up a huge store of political capital.

Some traditionalists in the party rank and file would argue that they have been too miserly about how they spend it. There is rumbling disquiet that this Government has not been radical enough or reformist enough.

If there was complacency during National’s first term that Key and English would get around to these things eventually, there will be rising frustration in their third term that it may never happen.

Rallying behind someone like former minister Judith Collins could be the outlet for that frustration.

That won’t trouble Key or English, when the polls show National continues to cut a swathe through public opinion. Their mantra – supported by the polls – has been to stick with what works.

The time to worry will come when the mood turns against National and the backbench starts to reflect back some of the restlessness from their local rank and file.

At the same time, there are potential flashpoints on the wider front as senior ministers acknowledge – new health and safety laws that tie small business up in red tape and add costs to their already thin profit margins; the Maori water rights issue which has reared its head again over an iwi leadership group push for effective property rights in respect of fresh water.

In the regions, and at local electorate level, these could easily turn the mood against National.

Government’s can weather these things when they have momentum. But once they lose momentum, these are the sorts of issues that can snowball into a mood for change.

Unless Key and English are about to embark on a radical departure from their usual modus operandi, Thursday’s Budget is unlikely to rock the boat enough to bring that day forward.

The balancing act will be knowing when the day comes, when that will turn into a weakness rather than a strength.