Rebuild slows, industry confidence dips
The perception of many is that the rebuild will peak between 2016-17, although it is expected to be longer and flatter than was initially anticipated.
Portions of the Christchurch earthquake rebuild have slowed, reducing confidence in the infrastructure sector nationally.
Costs remain the biggest barrier to rebuild progress, with price hikes still expected in labour, plant and materials, a new survey shows.
The Aecom Sentiment Survey for the first half of 2015 highlights easing sentiment within the infrastructure market across all regions of the country.
About 36 per cent of New Zealand infrastructure respondents now expect an increased workload, down from a peak of 46 per cent six months ago, Aecom says.
The change in outlook was most noticeable in Christchurch with the potential reduction of horizontal infrastructure work by the Stronger Christchurch Infra- structure Rebuild Team (Scirt) the most likely contributor. Scirt was set up after the 2011 earthquakes.
The optimism of those working in the Canterbury market had dropped from 78 per cent to 70 per cent in the last six months as Scirt and some of the other rebuild work flattened.
Scirt had made significant infrastructure progress with 72 per cent of all work complete.
Scirt work was expected ‘‘to continue at current levels for another 12 months’’.
Some other anchor projects such as the convention centre and metro sports facility have yet to begin, and will provide future work in the rebuild city.
‘‘The perception of many is that the rebuild will peak between 2016-17, although it is expected to be longer and flatter than was initially anticipated,’’ the report said.
Good communication within the rebuild remained an import- ant theme. Survey respondents were advocating for more clarity from and between the Government’s Earthquake Commission and insurance companies ‘‘to address the gap between reality and expectations’’.
Also private home
owners needed ‘‘to better understand the process and their role in achieving a favourable and speedy outcome’’.
Aecom Christchurch area manager Shaun Hubbard said it was important for departments like the Christchurch Earthquake Recovery Authority to evolve in a timely and phased way.
‘‘Capacity and capability must be maintained to deliver the end state portfolio of anchor projects and ensure business confidence is maintained,’’ he said.
The report said the outlook in Canterbury did remain ‘‘very positive’’, with most respondents expecting the buildings sector to continue to have high growth.
In this market, mixed-use and industrial buildings were where respondents were most optimistic.
The survey showed the most positive outlook for infrastructure for the rest of the South Island was based on the tourism and leisure sector.
Aecom Sentiment Survey