NZ First guessing game

New Zealand will likely know its next government within the next 48 hours but at this point it’s anyone’s guess which way Winston Peters will go.

There has been a lot of speculation about which party NZ First would choose to be a part of the next coalition government.

However, there’s not a strong winner coming out among all the speculation, which will likely make both sides nervous.

A collection of political commentators, party insiders and former MPs contacted refused to give their viewpoint on which way Peters would go, because it was anyone’s guess.

Labour with green support

Political commentator Deborah MahutaCoyle said her bet was on NZ First forming a minority coalition government with Labour, and having the Greens on the outside for confidence and supply.

That would mean the Green Party would not have a seat at the table and the government would have to seek the Greens’ support as needed, issue-byissue.

James Shaw has said it was ‘‘unlikely’’ his government would sign up for this sort of arrangement.

‘‘We are in politics in order to make change.’’

This would give NZ First the opportunity of supporting the ‘‘fresh, new situation’’, of Labour and the Greens, rather than to remain with the likely outgoing National government, while not having to deal directly with the Green Party in government.

Mahuta-Coyle said there was ‘‘less baggage’’ between NZ First and Labour. And the Greens would be Labour’s responsibility when it came to gaining support.

This role would also be a good starting point for the Green Party, which had not been in government before, she said.

No matter who formed the next government, there would be a strong opposition, which would test the government and make for a robust democratic process.

National

Auckland University politics and international relations lecturer Mark Boyd said if he was forced to wager which way Winston Peters would go, he’d pick National.

There were a few things Peters had to consider, he said.

‘‘What’s best for the country, what’s best for National, what’s best for Labour and the Green Party, and what’s best for Winston.

‘‘And the last one is the deciding factor.’’

Boyd said the third party (the Greens) made a coalition with Labour ‘‘unreasonable’’.

In order to lead and manage that arrangement, Jacinda Ardern would have to be ‘‘Helen Clark on steroids’’.

‘‘She has a great future but she’s not Helen Clark, and not Helen Clark on steroids.’’

The way the coalition negotiation process had played out was ‘‘turning from farce to tragedy’’.

The meetings behind closed doors, the waiting to begin, then the rush through negotiations, showed there needed to be some form of guidelines for the process, Boyd said.

‘‘It feels like we’re playing Married at First Sight, not forming a government.’’

University of Canterbury political science head Alex Tan said Peters had played his cards close to his chest.

However, at a guess, a three-way coalition with the Green Party would be too volatile, he said.

A coalition with National was more straightforward, and would make it easier for NZ First to gain the policy and portfolio concessions it wanted.

At the end of the day, Peters would go with the party that gave it the most concessions.

And coalition theory, and history, showed support parties like NZ First were ‘‘overpaid’’, receiving a disproportionate amount of portfolios in government.

We’re all in the dark

Other political commentators and party insiders who spoke to Stuff said they did not want to comment on the record because at this stage, it’s still anyone’s guess.

Former National minister Wayne Mapp, who was there during 1996 negotiations, said he wouldn’t like to make a guess.

The left-bloc and right-bloc were relatively close in terms of vote share.

But Peters would be weighing up potential risks, as well as opportunity, on both sides.

The NZ First leader said he went into the process with an open mind and he had encouraged his board and caucus to do the same.

Butformer NZ First deputy leader Peter Brown said he expected Peters to strongly influence the decision of his board — as was usually the case with all parties in this situation.

So which way does he think Peters will lean? Brown doesn’t know. ‘‘I’m just as much in the dark.’’ The good news, is the country should know the answer within the next 48 hours.