Leadership hopefuls plea to caucus
National’s leadership contenders will get just five minutes to put their case to the caucus one final time today – and as the race goes down to the wire, it could make or break the chances of any one of the contenders.
Voting will start after the five contenders – Amy Adams, Simon Bridges, Steven Joyce, Judith Collins and Mark Mitchell - deliver a five minute speech and insiders say there will probably be some MPs who will only make up their mind on the day.
No one is claiming victory yet in the five way race – but nor is anyone conceding defeat. Which means that the five hopefuls still have everything to play for before today’s secret ballot.
Bridges and Adams are still said to be ahead in the race – and while Bridges is said to have the edge on Adams in a first round ballot, she may edge ahead of him once second preferences are thrown into the mix.
But Joyces’ camp claim the race is tighter, Collin’s camp suggests the ground has shifted since a week ago, and other sources suggest wild card Mitchell may be picking up more support than the others realise, particularly among the sizeable class of 2017.
That could just mean no one is telling the truth – and that is highly likely both on the part of the contenders, and also on the part of the MPs who are being individually courted for their vote by the five contenders.
MPs will be spooked if they start to believe they are backing the wrong horse, because to the winner goes the spoils, and that includes the power to dole out the best jobs and plum front bench seats.
But even if some of the contenders have a large number of expressions of support, the fact it is a secret ballot means they won’t ever know if they are double crossed.
A caucus vote in 2003 created ill feeling for years after Bill English lost to Don Brash, after believing he had firm commitments of support from a majority of MPs.
There is another reason for MPs to play their cards close to their chest – they will be coming under pressure from their local electorate committees and supporters to back a particular candidate and will worry about getting offside with them.
Collins is the party favourite, and there has been an email campaign from the wider party membership in support.
It is hard to know how much effect that is having on MPs, however, with one caucus insider suggesting it was mostly ‘p...ing’’ people off.
No matter who wins, however, the unprecedented five-way contest and knock out ballot could thrust National into new territory, with a new leader who may not have been the first choice of a majority of caucus.
National leaders are usually rolled in a caucus coup, without it going to a vote, though there has been at least one three-way vote in the past.
While a number of MPs put their hand up for the leadership after Sir John Key stepped aside, English was never in trouble of losing the vote.
But this time around there is no clear favourite.
So one factor that may sway MPs is whether any of the contenders looks more likely to build consensus in the caucus, rather than someone more polarising.
It also makes the second preference votes of the third, fourth and fifth-place getters crucial.
The losing candidates could potentially trade the second preferences of their supporters to leverage a job or front bench seat. If Bridges wins, for instance, he would likely appoint Adams his finance spokesman, and vice versa.
The deputy leadership could also be part of the horse trading, though Paula Bennett is widely tipped to be aligned with Bridges and is said to have bought at least five votes to his camp as a result.
The candidates are so far denying any deals, however.