Dry summer prediction puts farmers on alert

After two stellar summers, Canterbury farms could be feeling the dry come Christmas as the weather pattern across the country turns to El Nino.

Niwa (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research) principal scientist Chris Brandolino said,’’consensus from international models’’ indicated a transition to the El Nino pattern over the next three months.

There was a 78 per cent chance of El Nino conditions over February, although the strength of this Canterbury provincial president Cameron Henderson who farmed at Oxford.

He said the region had had ‘‘one very good summer’’ since the last drought.

‘‘Last summer had some rainfall Jason Grant Chris Brandolino and some very good growth.

And it has been warm all the way event – if it eventuated – remained through winter, so we have had 12 uncertain at this point, he said. months of good growing and

‘‘El Nino hasn’t happened yet farmers have been able to replenish but it looks like we are heading in their feed stores and get back to that direction. normal again (since the drought).

The predicted dry summer ‘‘If we get another hot summer would put North Canterbury it really depends on how long the farmers, recovering from two drought lasts for. North Canterbury years of serious drought, on edge tends to plan to go into a dry said Federated Farmers North period every year – it is part of our normal weather pattern. But the last dry period went on for 18 months. It really punished the region.’’

The forward warning from Niwa was helpful, Henderson said. Farmers could make plans around stocking rates and feed storage.

‘‘Don’t leave it to the last minute thinking let’s wait and see what happens. Expect the best and plan for the worst,’’ he advised.

South Canterbury provincial president Jason Grant said there was concern amongst the region’s farmers that they could be in for a dry summer. ‘‘If we haven’t had any rain by October we will be starting to get concerned,’’ he said. ‘‘So far it has been a really good winter because it has been so dry. Its been good for stock and arable and a good start to calving.

‘‘But in South Canterbury catchments there isn’t much of a snow pack – there hasn’t been much snow over the winter. There isn’t a lot to fill Lake Opuha.’’

Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said with 2018 already half over, the first six months of the year was ‘‘telling a particularly definitive weather story of two halves’’. .

Noll said from January to June this year record or near record highs meant monthly temperature records were reached a staggering 163 times.