Got 214 trillion calories to spare?
There has been much to say about food lately and its production methods.
Debate rages around how animal protein systems are wrecking the planet. Veganism is on the ascension on the back of the huge investments sourced by the rapidly emerging synthesised protein industries.
While the wealthy and middle classes debate in detail their large array of choices, and their effects, it’s important to realise that food choices are not a luxury that many have. Basic food security is still a priority for many human beings.
I might just briefly unpack a few realities in the form of global food security.
The Chinese food story starting in the early 2000s heralded in a rapid change from a self-sufficient country to a nett importer that has redirected the world’s food distribution systems. China’s ability to go to the world and essentially secure food commodities was in large part due to the emergence of South America as a world powerhouse of bulk food supply.
The next food story, which may have a similar impact is India. They will seek the same food security on the back of household prosperity as China did in the early 2000s. My question is, where is their South America?
Africa by 2023 is on track to surpass both India’s and China’s population. They did not have a green revolution and as a result sub-Saharan yields on corn for example are equal to the 1940s yields of the American Midwest.
If we think the food shock of 2008 was a ‘‘one off’’ think again. Sustained food insecurity leads to further weakening of key institutions and as governments fail this triggers mass migrations, this in turn causes social upheaval at scale.
You don’t have to look much further than the exodus from Syria into eastern Europe, and North Africa into Mediterranean Europe and more recently the caravan out of central America, all bought on by failing states.
Food security means global economic and social stability which is important to us as a food exporting nation.
The stark reality is that while animal protein and crop-based food systems have much work to do in terms of environment and climate impacts they both have a part to play in providing that security.
From the organic farmer to the Industrial farmer and all in between, farming systems must stop going to war with each other and realise we all will be vital in the future. Then we must go on to produce an extra 70 per cent more food by 2050 with climate challenges and resource constraints working against us.
By 2027 some have predicted the world will be short 214 trillion calories which equates to 379 billion Big Macs, more than McDonald’s have ever produced.
Maybe all these mega investors who share a global consciousness should redirect their billions away from picking winners in terms of the global diet, towards continent’s and countries whose questions are not around multi food choice but around the basic question of where my next meal is coming from.