No need to panic over the ‘devil virus’

I’ve been schooling myself up on the new coronavirus this week. I haven’t really been paying that much attention, partly because it seems any panic is unjustified and New Zealand is a long way from the action.

But perhaps I should be worried. Born with low immunity, allergies and asthma, I’ve caught just about every virus known to the human race.

In recent years, however, when I have descended into the most unfit and unhealthy state I have ever been in, I have rarely been sick. I sometimes think my increased consumption of liquor, especially red wine, and putting on weight, have been effective in fighting off viral and bacterial infections.

That’s probably confusing correlation with causation.

It took me a while to realise the latest coronavirus, initially called novel coronavirus, is new, as in brand spanking new. The name also puzzled. I’ve always associated corona with the beer brand.

Why give a virus such a beautiful name? Chinese President Xi Jinping is onto something when he refers to the virus as a ‘‘devil virus’’. Anyway, people have settled on 2019-nCoV which reads like a computer password.

The main thing I want to know is just how much I need to worry. We are a long way from the centre of the virus in Wuhan, where most of the 25,000 infected people live, and I’m confident our authorities are on top of it.

This confidence dropped a bit when I read about a flight from China to Auckland where the passengers simply walked away from the airport without being checked.

At 61, I’m in the virus’ target market. About 80 per cent of those who have died were over the age of 60, although 75 per cent of them had pre-existing health conditions such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes.

We also know the proportion of people infected with 2019-nCoV who have died is about 2 per cent. However, this is based on the number of reported infections. The real number could be much higher than 25,000, which would bring down the percentage a lot.

By way of comparison the seasonal flu kills fewer than 1 per cent of those it infects. That equates to the population of Christchurch dying worldwide each year from flu.

The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic killed 2.5 per cent of those infected and Sars, which spread in China in 2003 and killed about 800 people, had a mortality rate of about 10 per cent.

Although China has taken some fairly desperate and drastic steps to contain the virus, the experts say we shouldn’t be too worried.

Auckland University vaccinologist Dr Helen PetousisHarris makes the point that the difference between 2019-nCoV and previous global infections is the unprecedented ability to ‘‘literally watch the birth of a new human infection in real time’’.

The plethora of information available, she says, is a mixed blessing because misinformation is harder to spot, leading to confusion and stigmatisation.

Her central message is that the risk of contracting the illness is very low and most people who get it will probably not get very sick. With the good healthcare available in New Zealand, the risk of dying is extremely low. Poorer countries – think Samoa and the measles outbreak – are in a much more vulnerable position.

One thing that puzzles me is how the virus spreads. Surely you can catch the illness from people who have it.

Apparently the flu and the four other coronaviruses that cause the common cold can be spread by people who don’t have any symptoms but, despite earlier reports that 2019-nCoV also had this trait, it’s now said it probably doesn’t.

In the meantime I’m sticking with my red wine theory.

There is nothing like an election to focus the minds of the community and the elected representatives on what are seen as the important issues moving forward.

The big take away from last year’s local body election for me was people’s clear concerns regarding the affordability of housing in many parts of Central Otago.

That may have been partially motivated by the Southern District Health Board report released not long before the election which gave on-the-ground accounts of the problems that the gap between our low-income economy and our high house prices are causing.

Alongside that came a challenge from the Otago Chamber of Commerce for solutions to be found in the housing space due to the problems this is creating for employers trying to find and retain staff.

Council will be in a position this year to determine its role in finding solutions to this issue.

Individual communities also expressed concerns particular to their area.

The pressures of growth are most apparent in Cromwell, with possible solutions coming through from the Masterplan process already causing concern to some.

Continuing to work through the Masterplan process will be a big focus for that board and council over this year.

Many in Alexandra raised concerns about empty shops and I am currently talking to people about joining my Mayoral Taskforce, the purpose of which will be to get a clear indication of what is happening in the town centre and gaining a view on possible solutions.

While not directly a council matter, everyone in central and particularly those in the Vincent area should be watching the Manuherekia minimum flow process being run by the Otago Regional Council very closely as 2020 will bring, and has already brought, significant decisions to be made to the Otago Regional Council table.

I remain heavily engaged in that process as a member of the Community Advisory Group set up by the Otago Regional Council to try to gain consensus as to the best way forward.

Our big community infrastructure projects will, in some cases, be completed this year.

Many in the public cast all these people into one group, claiming they do little other than sit in Wellington and lap up their high salaries.

I may have been guilty of that in the distant past myself, but like any group of people, Parliamentarians come in all types.

By and large, I have found the vast majority of them that I have met to be very hard working and dedicated to doing the best thing for New Zealand.

They just often don’t agree on party lines as to what the best thing is.

I have met some absolutely brilliant minds amongst them, and I have seen the hours that most MP’s work, especially those with large electorates such as ours.

Sadly though I have also met outright liars and people who in my view are there for no reason other than themselves.

As we go into the election though, I will be keeping in mind that, in my own experience, the liars and the wastes of space are, thank goodness, a very small minority in the Beehive.

* Tim Cadogan is the mayor of Central Otago