So much has changed in so little time

Grant Duncan invites responses to the second round of the Stuff/Massey pre-election survey.

Since the first round of the Stuff/ Massey pre-election survey (July 12-19), a lot has happened. National leader Todd Muller unexpectedly resigned and was promptly replaced by Judith Collins. A new outbreak of coronavirus appeared in South Auckland and the country went into level 2 and 3 restrictions. Controversy erupted over a failure to implement the Cabinet’s stated policy that all border-control staff are tested for Covid-19. And the election was postponed by four weeks. We didn’t see any of that coming.

More than 70,000 people completed July’s first round of the survey. And, within a week of its closing, we fed back to readers some of the headline results. So, we’re checking in with you again for a second round. We want to know how things are going, from your point of view, and what changes you hope for as the country navigates through pandemic, recession, and into the next Parliament.

The survey has had very high levels of participation, but it is not statistically representative of our population. Nonetheless, it does indicate how opinions vary across age, income, ethnicity, and so on. For example, only about 1 per cent of male and female respondents said they are ‘‘often scared’’ when walking around their neighbourhoods. And 11.3 per cent of those who ticked male and 7.1 per cent who ticked female rated policing as ‘‘poor’’.

But 26.3 per cent of ACT supporters rated police effectiveness as poor, even though only 2 per cent of them feel ‘‘often scared’’ in their own neighbourhoods. ACT supporters benefit from the security provided by tax-funded policing, but many do not give the police credit for it.

Well, ACT is ideologically sceptical of anything that’s taxpayer-funded. Compared with the other parties in Parliament, ACT supporters were the most likely to rate the Government’s overall response to Covid-19 as ‘‘unsuccessful’’: 29.5 per cent compared with 9.9 per cent for the whole sample. They were the most strongly in favour of abolishing the Ma¯ ori seats: 68.2 per cent compared with 36.6 per cent overall. And 32.4 per cent of them hoped that Donald Trump would win in the US election, compared with 11 per cent overall.

ACT supporters expressed higher levels of discontent and distrust than supporters of the other parties represented in Parliament. The supporters of the tiny New Conservative party, however, were even grumpier.

This, and other such data from the survey, showed us that the team of five million is not all paddling in the same direction. Party-political affiliations revealed much more highly polarised opinions than across ethnic and gender self-identification. And, as the impending election is accompanied by a major national crisis, these ideological divisions will be keenly felt.

Opinion polls since the beginning of the year have registered a great deal of volatility. In January, which seems like an age ago, National was ahead of Labour. The anxiety caused by the pandemic, and New Zealand’s relatively low infection and mortality rates, stimulated trust in and support for the Government, boosting Labour’s polling above 50 per cent.

As the social and economic strains of the lockdowns continue to prey upon New Zealanders’ minds, will that support and confidence be eroded? Looking beyond the election, what kinds of policy changes do Kiwis hope for as we navigate our way out of this pandemic?

Our world is being changed from the ground up by the devastating global effects of a virus. Our political landscape is changing along with it. You can tell us what you think about the current situation, and the future, by going to www.stuff.nz and completing the survey.