Return ticket to Lord’s
Successive Lord’s finals within two years remains a tricky but realistic goal for the Black Caps, with more riding on their next four cricket tests than a sponsor’s trophy and bottle of bubbly.
Tim Southee, Ross Taylor and Kyle Jamieson farewelled their Twenty20 team-mates yesterday to relocate to Hamilton, joining a freshened-up captain Kane Williamson and Trent Boult to prepare for Thursday’s first test against the Jason Holder-led West Indies.
Win these four tests in five weeks – two each against West Indies and Pakistan – and Williamson’s side has a fighting chance of returning to the home of cricket in London for the inaugural World Test Championship final in June. Few in New Zealand, anyway, need reminding of their previous visit, wearing black in July last year.
Then it requires other results to go their way, namely a onesided four-test series between Australia and India – currently first and second on the ladder and favourites to contest the final – which would enable New Zealand to slip past one of them.
It’s not as simple as most wins. Especially amid Covid-19 and some postponed WTC series, including New Zealand’s scheduled two-test series in Bangladesh in August.
The International Cricket Council also tinkered with the rules, which means the two teams with the highest win percentage from their WTC tests become the finalists.
That change didn’t impress Indian skipper Virat Kohli, who said: ‘‘It is definitely surprising because we were told points are the matter of contention for the
top two teams qualifying in the WTC and now suddenly it has become percentage out of nowhere.
So it’s very confusing, very difficult to understand why.’’Certainly it works in the Black Caps’ favour on home soil where they’ve been near invincible in recent years.
Under Williamson, since November 2016, the Black Caps won 13 of their 19 home tests and lost just one, to South Africa in Wellington in 2017. That included comfortable 2-0 victories over Pakistan (2016) and West Indies (2017).
Playing just four tests means 60 points for each win (120 points per series, split evenly among tests played). India, meanwhile, play four in Australia then
another four at home against England, while Australia play three in South Africa after India depart their shores.
As it stands, Australia (82.2 per cent) lead India (75 per cent), England (60.83 per cent) and New Zealand (50 per cent) on the revised ladder under the new formula.
So what are the permutations for the Black Caps to barge their way in?
■ Winning these four tests boosts them to 70 per cent, probably the minimum requirement to finish top-two. One draw and three wins means a 63 per cent finish, unlikely to be enough.
■ Assuming four New Zealand wins, one of Australia or India need to drop below 70 per cent,
and England to also remain sub70 (they have two away series in Sri Lanka and India).
■ Five wins from eight tests will keep India above 70 and probably be enough for them, but if they win four and lose four against Australia and England they’ll finish on 66.7 per cent. Four wins and two draws also leaves them short, at 69.4 per cent.
■ Australia remain in the box seat to quality top, tough as they are to beat at home. If they sweep India 4-0 they climb to 86.7 per cent, and an unlikely 3-0 defeat in South Africa drops them back to 69.3.
■ Even if England beat Sri Lanka 2-0, then win three in India they still reach just 69.7 per cent, so would need a draw in the other India test to sneak past 70.