Ardern’s Asia trip provides a lesson and a warning
Aweek of high-stakes global summits discussing war, inflation and superpower competition has ended with the increasingly unexpected: consensus.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern left Bangkok, Thailand, on Saturday evening (NZ time) after a week-long trip to Southeast Asia that ended with a meeting of Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) forum leaders.
At each stop along Ardern’s way – Phnom Penh, Cambodia, for the East Asia Summit, Vietnam for a trade mission, and Bangkok for Apec – there were reminders the world in is strife.
At an East Asia Summit consumed by war and inflation, a protagonist in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kremlin foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, was one seat away from Ardern.
By the time she reached Vietnam, a missile had crashed into Poland from across the Ukraine border, killing two people.
And, not to be outdone, North Korea launched a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile into Japanese waters as Ardern joined world leaders in Bangkok for Apec.
But there were also reasons for optimism and a lesson: it is possible to stand up to the bullies, even if encouraging moments are clouded by confrontation.
Ultimately, leaders of the 21 Apec economies reached agreement on Saturday – after leaders at the East Asia Summit the weekend prior did not – and a consensus statement affirming the organisation’s economic work was produced. As with a G20 meeting held in Bali earlier in the week, the statement also condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine and demanded Russian troops withdraw from the country.
Ardern had not expected consensus to be reached this year, given the circumstances.
‘‘To come through Apec and see that consensus is very significant and it does demonstrate that we have a very isolated Russia at this time,’’ she said.
It showed the value of face-toface diplomacy, which has now effectively returned after nearly three years of pandemic stasis, and it showed meetings between leaders can take the heat out of a crisis and allow cool heads to prevail. An obvious example was the reaction to a stray missile crashing into Poland from Ukraine.
US President Joe Biden led Nato members in Bali into an emergency meeting and, with an assessment the projectile was a Ukraine air defence missile gone awry, there was no room for confusion or escalation as leaders stayed on message.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s return to the world stage, and meetings with Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese were another show worth watching.
Both the US and Australia take far more strident positions on China than New Zealand, and direct economic conflict between them has been a source of unease in Wellington.
But it is clear the one-on-one meetings with Xi were constructive, not only for New Zealand.
Though Biden promised the US would ‘‘compete vigorously’’ with China after their meeting, his secretary of state will soon travel to Beijing for further talks.
Ardern appears to have effectively secured a future trade mission to China at her own meeting with Xi.
It also showed Australia’s strong stance against China’s retaliatory tariffs – which were never as
punishing for Australia as the equivalent on New Zealand could be – had in a sense paid off.
Without capitulation, the diplomatic frost between the two parties appears to be thawing.
Ardern’s own language on the New Zealand-China relationship appeared to strengthen as Xi made his way around world leaders. The day before her meeting with Xi she said New Zealand needed to be able to raise issues without ‘‘retaliatory acts’’.
Though some issues were off the agenda for the meeting. Despite talking about the need for open economies at an Apec event, Ardern ruled out bringing up
China’s hardline Covid-19 policies and very-much closed economy.
This was possibly wise, for the same reason it appears Ardern refused to provide any indication of what Xi said in their meeting.
Days earlier, Xi challenged Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the sideline of the G20 meeting as details of their bilateral meeting appeared in the Canadian press.
Canada’s relationship with China is seriously sour but all the same it was a stunning moment, the usually reserved Xi stepping out to challenge a leader off-script.
It would have caused shudders and it dispelled any notion that Xi’s obvious courting of world leaders – potentially a signal China may soon open up – was anything more than an incremental, positive step.
Another dent to any optimism was relayed by Ardern on Saturday.
International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva provided to leaders an economic update, with projections showing pandemic-related supply chain issues and the war in Ukraine could have regional growth drop as low as 2%.
For countries that don’t enter a technical recession, it is still going to feel like one.
The ‘‘policy prescription’’ was open borders, trade between countries, and the ‘‘free flow of goods and services’’.
For now, that remains a pill some are unwilling to swallow.