Net migration gain speeds up

Migration is recovering surprisingly quickly and will hit a net gain of 36,000 people in a year’s time, Kiwibank says.

Covid border closures took the wind out of New Zealand’s sails. While net migration hit a record high in the year to March 2020 of 91,900, it declined to an annual net loss a year later of about 1700.

In the year to September, there was an annual net loss of 8400, although that was smaller than a net loss of about 14,800 in the year to February. New Zealand departures picked up once Covid-related travel restrictions began to ease earlier this year, sparking fears of a brain drain before international arrivals could recover.

However, monthly arrival numbers were improving, particularly since the border fully reopened on July 31.

Kiwibank senior economist Jeremy Couchman said migrant arrivals were recovering despite visa application delays and a delay in opening borders to nonvisa waiver countries.

September’s net migration gain for the month of 2000 people was the biggest gain since preCovid, although it was still only a third of the monthly average over 2019.

‘‘It appears that after jumping out of the gates earlier in the year, long-term departures may have steadied. Meanwhile, longterm arrivals, mainly from nonNew Zealand citizens, continue to steadily recover,’’ he said. ‘‘A meaningful trend is developing.’’

Kiwibank had upgraded its net migration forecasts to an annual peak of a 36,000 gain in a year’s time. That was well below the average of the five years before Covid, which was close to a net 60,000 gain, but that period was the largest migration boom in recent history, Couchman said.

The lower peak of about 36,000 reflected tighter immigration settings and competition for skilled migrants from other developed countries.

Aotearoa had an ageing population and needed to keep migration net positive, he said.

The bills associated with ageing were taking up a greater share of the public purse, and New Zealand’s retired population would be reliant on a shrinking pool of younger workers. In the shorter term, businesses struggling to fill vacant positions would welcome a faster turnaround in net migration.

As of Monday, 38,414 working holiday visa applications had been approved, according to the office of Immigration Minister Michael Wood, with 19,723 of the visa holders having arrived in the country. Just more than 1000 applications were declined.

Migrants could also take the edge off the peak in wage growth, Couchman said.

‘‘A meaningful trend is developing.’’ Jeremy Couchman Kiwibank senior economist