Vengeful Zuma plots to end ANC’s grip on power
Even when Jacob Zuma was charged with corruption, when he was jailed for refusing to co-operate with a judicial inquiry, or when he brought a private prosecution against his successor, Cyril Ramaphosa put party unity before confronting his former comrade.
Yet now, as the disgraced former South African president plots to end the 30-year dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) he once led, Ramaphosa has finally bared his teeth. “Those are people who belong in jail, they are the people who are the enemies of our democracy,” he said.
A new party led by Zuma, 81, named after the ANC’s former paramilitary wing, has quickly amassed support before May’s general election, which polls show could be one of the most competitive votes since apartheid ended.
There are growing fears that the ballot could turn violent after Zuma’s supporters warned of “civil war” and “riots like you have never seen” if their party, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), is kept off the ballot.
The ANC suspended Zuma in January, when he joined MK with the parting shot that it “would be a betrayal” to campaign for a party led by Ramaphosa, his former deputy, who he claimed was “a proxy” for white business interests.
Zuma’s resentment stems from 2018 when, with corruption allegations mounting against him, the ANC forced him to make way for Ramaphosa.
“It’s a very dangerous, high-stakes game Zuma is playing,” said Daniel Silke, a political analyst, adding that there was the risk of “an explosive and potentially violent fallout” in the traditional ANC stronghold of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province, where Zuma has his own power base.
Three years ago, the jailing of Zuma for refusing to testify in an inquiry about his alleged corruption triggered the worst bout of unrest in South Africa’s democratic era, in which more than 300 people were killed. State-sponsored looting during his nine years in power is estimated to have cost the country billions.
Zuma was released in September 2021 because of an undisclosed medical condition. He has travelled regularly to Russia for treatment, and during his leadership he cultivated a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
There were tensions with Ramaphosa during their years as comrades in arms. Zuma, who never completed school, has solid struggle credentials, having served in jail with Nelson Mandela. Zuma resented the swift rise of Ramaphosa, who had been a law student activist, after Mandela’s release.
Ramaphosa became Zuma’s deputy in 2012. Five years later, when Zuma’s second and final term as party leader was ending, Ramaphosa made a move for the top job, beating Zuma’s preferred choice and former wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
Promising “a new dawn”, Ramaphosa made a veiled jibe at the “wasted years” that had gone before. The comments were taken by Zuma as the gauntlet thrown down, and his revenge now looks within reach.
A survey of registered voters in KZN conducted last month by the independent Social Research Foundation found that 27% supported Zuma’s party, compared with 17% who backed the ANC. Record levels of unemployment, inequality and crime are testing conditions for the ANC campaign. A national poll published this week by the Brenthurst Foundation and the Sabi Strategy Group of voter intentions in February estimated support for the ANC at 39%, and MK with already up to 13% of the vote.
Falling below 50% of the national vote would force the former liberation movement to build a coalition with smaller parties to stay in power. Zuma’s revenge would be complete in that event, which would probably lead to Ramaphosa being forced to resign the presidency.
South Africa's constitution prevents Zuma from entering parliament because of his criminal record - another obstacle his supporters will challenge.
In addition to his conviction, Zuma is facing trial on 16 charges including racketeering, fraud and money laundering, for allegedly accepting bribes from a government arms deal in 1999, when he was deputy president.