Premiership title race shaping up as thriller
What we are watching in this Premier League season between Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool is truly special, unique in the modern era, writes
At the Sydney Olympics in 2000, the margin separating gold medallist Haile Gebrselassie and second-placed Paul Tergat in the men's 10,000m was less than that detaching Maurice Greene from Ato Boldon in the 100m - 0.09sec versus 0.12. So sometimes a marathon can be a sprint, and that is when sport is at its most compelling.
The cricket test that comes to the boil in the last hour of the last session on the last of five days. The title fight ended at the brink of exhaustion in the final round. Those championships won by Arsenal, and later Manchester City, with the last kick of the campaign. And this, the 202324 Premier League season. What we are watching is truly special, unique in the modern era.
Three, it transpires, isn't a crowd. It's fantastic. Make no mistake, this may shape up as the greatest title race in Premier League history. Not of all time, because football didn't begin in 1992. With seven games to go, the title is being contested by three teams that rarely drop a point.
And three is most certainly the magic number. We have seen some brilliant contests in recent years, not least 201819 when Manchester City and Liverpool went stride for stride into the final day, yet in this modern era the wider field invariably falls away, leaving a duel. It was a three-horse race, for instance, when Chelsea won at Manchester City in 2014, two points separating a trio. Yet that was February and there were 14 matches to play. Told he was in a three-horse race, Jose Mourinho famously spoke of “two big horses and a little horse . . . that needs milk, and work, and to learn how to jump”.
It was still a fine campaign but he was, in essence, correct. Chelsea weren't quite ready, and finished four points shy of City in third. Arsenal collapsed. Liverpool emerged and then fell apart when it mattered, too. The next year, as Mourinho predicted, Chelsea won the league - and at a canter.
And that's how it happens, most seasons. On 20 occasions, the Premier League has been won by five points or more, on nine occasions by ten points or more and on three occasions by 18 points or more. It has been won by 19 points as many times as it has been won on goal difference, and by seven or eight points as many times as it has been secured by one. So this is an exceptional season already.
Why is three better than two? Jeopardy. In a two-horse race, if one team drop points the other might the following week. A wrong can quickly be righted. In a three-horse race, ground is lost twice. It's not just one team who then need to falter. The permutations are greater, also. Two weekends ago it was advantage Liverpool. Last weekend, advantage Arsenal. Every twist has consequence. Rodri announcing that he needs a rest would be a footnote most weeks. Player is tired. Join the queue, mate. Yet when the correlation between Rodri's absence and City dropping points is so strong, his admission was headline news. The same with Liverpool's home defeat by Atalanta. It wasn't like losing just any match - that happens, even to the best teams.
With each weekend will come assessment, re-assessment, predictions, altered perceptions and new expectations. Who has it toughest, can anyone afford to drop so much as a point?
There have been 31 Premier League campaigns and only nine have been won by a margin that could be overturned in one game, by three points or less. Making this the Sydney 10,000m. It is considered among the greatest races in history. So is this. Enjoy.