Stats man’s keys to beat All Blacks

A rugby statistic analyst believes slowing ruck ball, defending the counter attack and winning the territory battle will be the keys to preventing the All Blacks from defending their Rugby World Cup crown.

International statistic company Prozone’s Palmerston North-based head rugby analyst Will Kane believes teams which adopt a conservative game plan will have the best chance to upset New Zealand.

Teams like South Africa and England, who are likely to stick to their conventional styles, were the most likely to cause the defending champions issues, he said.

‘‘The World Cup is a different beast, you are not going to win by razzle dazzle attacking rugby,’’ he said. ‘‘The team that can go to the World Cup with the structure and that ability to stop New Zealand from attacking will win the World Cup.

‘‘A country like South Africa or England where you have very structured and methodical game play with their attack or defence, I would see one of them going pretty close to taking it out.’’

Neither the English nor the Springboks have easy roads to a likely semifinal date with the All Blacks with the former having to to beat out Australia, Wales and Fiji in the pool of death (Pool A) and the latter likely to meet the second-placed team from that pool in the quarterfinals.

When it comes to the final few matches, Kane said things like home advantage, crowd support, emotions of the final, finals experience and team cohesion will be big factors. He predicts the 2007 World Cup champions will knock out the All Blacks.

‘‘I think South Africa can do it in the semifinals,’’ he said.

‘‘I think they can batten down the hatches and not give us the ability to play with the ball. If they can slow down our ability to recycle the ball quickly, stop our counter attack and restrict where we are on the field, they will be able to stop us.’’

Kane admits he has a bias towards South Africa – his company has a contract to supply statistics to the Springboks – but he also has a reason to be confident in the teams he works with.

Prozone and its predecessor Verusco Technology have provided statistics to England during their successful 2003 campaign, South Africa for their 2007 victory and New Zealand’s triumphant 2011 World Cup win.

He said New Zealand were deservedly the favourites to take out the cup.

‘‘It will take a hell of a lot of beating to beat New Zealand,’’ he said.

‘‘It is such a dominant country at the moment in every facet of the game, it is not just our backs that are flamboyant and great on the counter attack, our forwards are so efficient on what they do and the depth we have is tremendous.’’

The team that can go to the World Cup with the structure and that ability to stop New Zealand from attacking will win the World Cup. A country like South Africa or England. Will Kane