Settling the political score

Every year we make some bold predictions about the political year ahead. But we don’t always get it right. Like that time we predicted there would be a Labour prime minister after the 2017 election. Except we called it for Andrew Little, not Jacinda Arder

1. We predicted that National would stay ahead of Labour in the polls but the gap would narrow as NZ First’s share of the vote remains low. We also predicted that Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern would stay ahead in the preferred PM stakes. This one was looking shaky earlier in the year when Labour opened up a lead on National. But the story for much of the year has been National marginally ahead and while the lead has swapped around National was still ahead in December. Ardern is by far the preferred PM as well. We would usually rely on a poll of polls to give us our final score but the number of independent polls has shrunk to just one – the One News-Colmar Brunton Poll. So we are going to have to score ourselves a measly 6/10 visits New Zealand and is met with protest. We thought this one might be a slam dunk after hearing a whisper that Ivanka Trump was coming down under but it proved to be about as reliable as a Donald Trump tweet. 0/10 the Greens on the Kermadec sanctuary continue. 0/10 13. The Prime Minister will be forced to require the discipline of a NZ First member of the executive. There was plenty of trouble on the NZ First front, just no will from Labour to step on its minor allies toes. The closest Ardern got to getting in NZ First’s face was a gentle rebuke to Shane Jones for monstering Air NZ. We give ourselves 2/10 for at least calling that there would be some rocky patches. 14. Abortion law reform will not be openly pursued by the Government, despite a promise to take it out of the Crimes Act. Another prediction bites the dust. Labour is still talking up reform though we note that there has not been much progress so far. So we will cut ourselves a little slack by giving ourselves 2/10 15. National’s Nicola Willis will enter Parliament when a few list MPs retire – Nicky Wagner will likely be one of them. Caught out by another one of those double-banger predictions. Willis is in the fold but it wasn’t Wagner who made way for her – the departures of Steven Joyce and Jonathan Coleman made some room. talk down North Korea. We just threw this one in for fun but wish we hadn’t now that we’ve struck out so many times. The world managed to do it without Winston just fine. 0/10 17. A natural disaster will put the Government books out, breaking the Government’s Budget Responsibility Rules. Steven Joyce will still not have much support for his $11 billion hole. Mbovis was a disaster but the books are ship shape. Meanwhile, the responsibility rules are intact, even if a clever accounting trick saw $2.9b in borrowing on Housing NZ’s books, rather than the Government’s own. But there is no disputing that the economic news has been mostly golden for Finance Minister Grant Robertson. 0/10. 18. There will be a political bombshell that will see the ousting of a minister. Two in fact: Clare Curran and Meka Whaitiri. Can we claim double points? Please? We really could do with some help here. 10/10 So how did we do? We scored 90/200, our worst score ever. Blame it on the fact that it’s a new government after nine years of getting to know National’s moves.

But we’ve had a year of Labour, NZ First and the Greens now and we expect to do better next year. So tune in for our predictions for 2019 tomorrow.