Iowa should show which path Democrats will take
This time tomorrow, Democratic voters in the United States will finally get to weigh in on who their nominee should be to take on Donald Trump. Depending on voter enthusiasm (and the wintry weather), somewhere between 150,000 and 300,000 people in the small midwestern state of Iowa will congregate across more than 1000 precincts, in school halls, churches, even people’s homes, to caucus on behalf of their favoured candidate.
While the outcome of the Iowa caucuses is hardly determinative of the eventual outcome, history shows the state’s first-in-the-nation status gives it undeniable, and outsized, sway in shaping nomination contests for both parties. For Democrats, in particular, this fact invites considerable scepticism.
For a party that prides itself on attracting a diverse coalition of voters, and whose support comes overwhelmingly from cities and suburbs, why kick off the primary season in an overwhelmingly (90 per cent) white, predominantly rural, state? Given that Iowa is followed on the calendar by New Hampshire, similarly bucolic and white (94 per cent), it’s a compelling argument.
But since it is what it is, what can we expect, and how should we interpret the results?
Because turnout is low and nearly impossible to predict in caucus states, Iowa polling is notoriously unreliable. But averaged across multiple recent polls, avowed socialist Senator Bernie Sanders (Vermont) clearly enters the race as favourite. Former vice-president Joe Biden is half a dozen points adrift, followed closely by Senator Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts) and Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Senator Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota) is a tad further behind, in low double digits.
If results pan out this way, it would bolster Sanders’ claim to represent the progressive wing of the Democratic Party against more moderate, establishment candidates, notably Biden. This would come at the expense of Warren, who had been surging in the polls just a month or so back.
If Warren comes third or fourth in Iowa, then fails to capture her neighbouring state of New Hampshire a week later, it’s hard to see how she can remain in the race for much longer. In that scenario, momentum and money on the Democratic Left will coalesce behind Bernie.
Although she’s never said as much, Warren’s success always depended in large part on Sanders losing steam, which he doggedly refuses to do. On the other hand, if Warren surpasses expectations in Iowa – by, say, coming second ahead of Biden and giving Bernie a run for his money in New Hampshire – she may well live to fight another day.
For Biden, a second place in both Iowa and New Hampshire is about the best-case scenario. He would remain viable enough for the contests in Nevada and South Carolina, both more diverse states where he enjoys a polling lead. (Biden has a powerful advantage over his rivals among AfricanAmerican voters, a critical constituency in both primary and general elections.)
If he were to prevail in Nevada and South Carolina, momentum should carry over to Super Tuesday, March 3, where he could pick up most of the dozen-plus states that hold their primaries. By that point, Biden’s path to the nomination would be clear and largely unobstructed.
But a real risk is that he tanks badly in the early states, coming third or worse in Iowa, and badly trailing Sanders and Warren in New Hampshire. This could trigger panic among a party establishment desperate to avoid a Sanders candidacy, as Biden’s electability would be suddenly weakened.
The expectation of a Biden implosion underpins the campaign rationales of Buttigieg and Klobuchar, as well as former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg, who isn’t even bothering with the early contests. Their success depends almost entirely on Biden’s failure.
In Bloomberg’s case, he initially decided not to enter, but changed his mind when he concluded Biden might not prevail against what they both consider the unelectable left. He has lavished more than $250 million of his personal fortune on TV and digital ads to prepare for the eventuality that Biden limps from Iowa and New Hampshire as a fatally wounded frontrunner.
With the former Veep out of contention, the strategy relies on pitting Bloomberg, a former Republican with relatively modest policy goals, against Sanders or Warren, whose ambitious and costly proposals, he believes, make them highly vulnerable to Trumpian attacks. He is, in effect, offering himself as a lifeline for Democrats eager to avoid a Jeremy Corbyn-style shellacking.
The Sanders-Warren wing sees Bloomberg as a billionaire opportunist with a record in New York full of juicy targets for left-wing attacks.
The Democratic contest this time offers a clear contrast between a Sanders-style revolution and something closer to an Obama Restoration under Biden or Bloomberg. Iowa offers the first glimpse of which path voters are most eager to take.