What Climate Change Commission carbon-cutting plan means for us
The Climate Change Commission has released its final advice to the Government, laying out a carboncutting roadmap that could change the way we live.
From 2022 onwards, the commission wants us to meet a shrinking ‘‘carbon budget’’, which is essentially the amount of greenhouse gas the country is allowed to ‘‘spend’’ each year.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the journey would be tough at times but the numbers supported the plan to decarbonise.
‘‘It is a safer, smarter and cheaper choice to act now.’’
The commission has no lawmaking powers, so the Government will decide whether to pass the plan into legislation. We will find which ideas were thrown on the scrapheap when the Government releases an emissions reduction plan in December.
But if the Government backs all aspects of the roadmap, here is what it means for cars, homes, energy bills and farmers.
On the road
Petrol and diesel car imports will be banned, ideally by 2030 – but no later than 2035.
Half of all cars and motorbikes entering the country will be plug-ins by 2029, courtesy of a ‘‘feebate’’ or subsidy. Drivers who switch to electric will save $1300 each year by 2035. By 2035, 5 per cent of the petrol and diesel powering existing cars, trucks and planes will be sourced from organic matter, mixed in with fossil fuels.
Cars will be replaced with more bikes, scooters, walking, buses, trains and ferries. One in seven journeys will be taken using these low-carbon modes by 2035, under the commission’s roadmap
To boost demand, ferry, train and bus services will also be more frequent, cheaper and reliable.
Domestic flights will be powered by electricity by 2030.
At home
The commission believes electricity is the most efficient green fuel source to power our homes, so it recommends the Government set a date after which homes or business can no longer hook up to the natural gas network – 2025 is floated.
The commission also wants the Government to start phasing out natural gas appliances in the 2030s.
The rising cost of carbon pollution under the Emissions Trading Scheme will make it increasingly costly to buy fossil fuels. The average natural gas bill could be $300 higher by 2035.
Petrol prices are expected to rise by 30 cents per litre.
Communities will also run smallscale wind and solar farms, to help generate the electricity we need for our homes and cars.
New houses will be snugger, warmer and drier and neighbourhoods will become increasingly dense. New houses will be constructed on existing transport routes, giving more people access to buses, trains, ferries, cycleways and paths.
Our food and garden waste will be collected and composted, or sent to a landfill that captures the methane produced when organic matter rots.
At work
Up to 1400 people in the oil and gas industries will retire or change jobs.
The Government will identify atrisk workers and offer financial support and advice for those transitioning to a cleaner industry.
Up to 2300 vehicle mechanics will also retire or change jobs. This is because electric cars require less maintenance.
Factories will substitute coal and gas with electricity, wood waste and (potentially) hydrogen.
Coal boilers (except for businesses requiring very high temperatures) have already been banned. Food processing facilities will ditch coal between now and 2040. Buildings will stop burning coal for heat by 2030 and start phasing out natural gas after that.
The stuff we make should be increasingly reusable and recyclable, to minimise emissions from manufacturing and waste.
We will stop buying products containing hydrofluorocarbon gases, as these refrigerants are very powerful greenhouse gases.
On the farm
Cow and sheep numbers will fall by 13.6 per cent by 2030. The country will still produce roughly the same amount of milk and meat but with fewer animals burping out the potent greenhouse gas methane.
The commission is predicting herd numbers will drop by 8 per cent anyway but its advice recommends stepping this shrinkage up by roughly another 6 per cent. Some farms will replace animals with horticulture. The remaining meat and dairy farms will track carbon stored in their trees, soils and wetlands, and adopt best-practice animal and feed management.
Low-methane sheep will be selected. Fertiliser use will decrease. A methane-cutting technology will need to emerge – or we may have to make greater cuts to herd numbers. Without a vaccine or food additive that reduces methane, we may just scrape into our 2050 targets but are unlikely to be on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the commission says.
The commission wants to see a boost towards research into promising techniques.
On the grid
The Huntly power station will ditch coal by 2030. The commission proposes that natural gas be used as a backup fuel after that date, though that is at odds with the Government’s plan to have a backup power plant running on renewables by the end of the decade. New wind and solar farms will appear. Renewable power plants will need to generate 20 per cent more power to meet the new demand for electricity by 2035.
Owners of geothermal stations are hoping to come up with a technical solution (such as reinjecting greenhouse gases back into the ground) to reduce the emissions they produce.
In our forests
Native deforestation will be banned from 2025. Instead of losing native forest, the country will start to gain it: planting at least 12,000 hectares in 2021, rising to 25,000 hectares annually by 2030.
These new forests will suck up carbon for centuries. We will start to notice more native birds and lizards, and increasing water quality from the new forests.
Exotic forest planting will also ramp up between now and 2030.
After that, new pines will taper off, with a focus on native planting.