Heads you’re in, tails you’re out
Some folks might say it’s a shame no Aussie teams have a hope of featuring in the Super Rugby TransTasman final next weekend.
Having secured just two wins from 20 games, the five Australian sides slumped to the canvas well before this weekend’s fifth and last round, leaving their old mates from across the water to prop up the competition.
The Blues, Highlanders, Crusaders, Hurricanes and Chiefs are in the hunt for the top two positions. As for the Aussies, well, their work is almost done.
Get set for another all-Aotearoa final. It just remains to be seen where it will be played, and who the combatants will be.
If two or more teams have accumulated the same number of competition points after five rounds, tiebreaking rules will come into play.
This starts with the most wins from all matches, followed by the highest aggregate points difference. In the unlikely event that this can’t split the teams, it will come down to the most tries from all matches and then the highest aggregate difference of total tries for versus tries scored against.
If the stalemate continues, the result will be determined by a coin toss.
Here’s what each of the New Zealand teams must do to make the final.
1 BLUES
Points: 19
Points differential: 109
Opponent: Western Force in Auckland
What’s required to qualify for final? A bonus-point victory would advance the Blues to 24 points on the leader board, earning the right to host a final at Eden Park.
If they win, but don’t secure a bonus point, the odds would still be in their favour.
The Highlanders and Crusaders, both on 18 competition points, would have to do more than just claim bonus-point victories to steal home advantage. They would also have to win by a considerable margin to gobble up the Blues’ superior points differential. Biggest plus? Playing in front of their supporters. Given there’s the incentive of returning the following weekend to win a competition for the first time since 2003, the Blues shouldn’t lack motivation.
Major concern? That they underestimate the winless, yet dogged, Force.
2 HIGHLANDERS
Points: 18
Points differential: 82
Opponent: Brumbies in Canberra
What’s required to reach the final? A win over the Brumbies tomorrow night would catapult the Highlanders to pole position on 22 points, or 23 if they secure a bonus point. That could, potentially, be enough to host the big dance in Dunedin – although a few cards must tumble their way. If the Highlanders roll the Brumbies and the Blues fail to beat the Force the following day, or can only secure a draw, that would prevent the latter snatching back the right to host the final.
But there are other sharks circling in these waters.
The Highlanders need the Crusaders (also on 18 points) to either lose or draw to the Rebels, who have again been forced to play a ‘‘home’’ game in Sydney.
If the Crusaders beat the Rebels, the Highlanders don’t want them to exceed their points differential. If the Highlanders lose or draw to the Brumbies, they could be run down by the Hurricanes.
The Chiefs, too, could surge past the Highlanders if they fail to secure a competition point in Canberra.
Biggest plus? The Highlanders have got guts. They refused to allow the shock departure of coach Tony Brown prior to the transTasman competition to upset them and the 59-23 win over the hapless Waratahs in Dunedin last weekend should be good for their confidence.
Major concern? Canberra. There are easier places to play a game of rugby. Ask the Hurricanes after their defeat to the Brumbies last weekend.
3 CRUSADERS
Points: 18
Points differential: 71
Opponent: Rebels in Sydney
What’s required to reach the final? Their situation is similar to that of the Highlanders, who they trail by a points difference of 11. Crusaders coach Scott Robertson will hope for a bonus-point victory after failing to secure the vital extra point against the Force in Christchurch.
Biggest plus? The return of Richie Mo’unga. Fellow All Blacks Sam Whitelock and Sevu Reece should also be on the team sheet, but the in-form Mo’unga is the man who the Rebels will fear most.
Major concern? The need to find a quick cure for the inaccuracies that plagued them against the Force last weekend.
4 HURRICANES
Points: 16
Points differential: 73
Opponent: Reds in Brisbane
What’s required to reach the final? A bonus-point win at Sky Stadium would be ideal. They also need the Highlanders and Crusaders to come a cropper in their games.
Biggest plus? They are back home in
Wellington and will be determined to send midfielder
Ngani
Laumape out with a win.
Major concern?
That even if they blow the Reds to smithereens, their chances of making the final are slim. The Canes have paid a high cost for the loss to the Brumbies last weekend.
5 CHIEFS
Points: 14
Points differential: 26
Opponent: Waratahs in Sydney
What’s required to reach the final? A minor miracle. It’s still possible for the Chiefs to qualify but they must grab a bonus-point victory over the Waratahs to elevate them to 19 points. They then have to hope the Highlanders and Crusaders lose without securing a bonus point and that the Hurricanes do no better than secure a draw without securing a bonus point for securing three tries more than the Reds.
Yes, it is a long shot.
Biggest plus? That the Chiefs are still in contention.
Major concern? Even if they wallop by the Waratahs by 100 points, it’s likely to count for nothing.
The Chiefs lost control of their own destiny when they lost to the Reds in Townsville in the third round.